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duncun007

Bearish or bullish? bitcoin analysis

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Hello everyone, we have all seen the surge in bitcoin price during these days, but is it time to buy or is it time to sell and stay away from the market? 

 

As we all know , since covid19 hit all markets back in march all markets were recovering slowly, we saw bitcoin price drop sharply from 10300$ to around 3800$ in a matter of days, and back then most people were calling for a bubble burst and bitcoin dying for good, but as we all know bitcoin always recovers.

Chart Analysis

screencapture-tradingview-chart-KYVgHFuE-2020-11-07-22_39_43.thumb.jpg.09d915db91c4db9ba44dcad29a404383.jpg

In the chart you see the resistances and supports that i have been using for a while now, and after Corona everyone was buying that big dip in price because of the upcoming halving, even though there was a lot of price manipulation back in march but pretty much it was the perfect entry for a long term hodl. Personally I have sold most of my bitcoin above 15800$ the other day because the RSI (relative strength index) was very high to me and this usually ends with bitcoin price dropping sharply. which could be those usual 2000$ candles,

BEARISH SCENARIO

screencapture-tradingview-chart-KYVgHFuE-2020-11-07-23_04_03.thumb.jpg.77bc8f6ceaf178d9883fe897bddc93e8.jpg

in this scenario I believe we will see the price going down to look for support around 13800-14000$, because we havent seen a big correction during this whole leg up to 16k, and if 13800$ doesnt hold then we will go deeper down to 13200$, and im actually more inclined to the bearish scenario because I dont see yet that big momentum we need to push above 20k yet, plus the paypal news even though its huge but it doesnt allow you to withdrawal your bitcoin out or send bitcoin in, they just allow you to trade, and finally the second wave of covid already causing schools and businesses to close down again and also making the markets go down.

BULLISH SCENARIO

even tho I think its unlikely but if we managed to hold the 14000$ support and had a quick rebound to 15k then there might be a chance this current dump from 15900$ to 14300$ (as of writing this topic) might be a bear trap so weak hands sell their bitcoins, and then bulls will drive the price up to 18k and with enough gas we might push to give 20k another try.

FEAR AND GREED

307127537_MySnapshot6.jpg.46dfdcced8e9b5c7f38a329894278e8b.jpg

The fear and greed index has always been used to know the sentiment in the market and as we see it shows that there is an extreme greed in the market these days and this always result in the price taking a big hit, as we all know we buy when there is fear in the market and we sell when there is high greed. 

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For me it's neither buy nor sell now - it's hold. In about 2-3 months I think selling would be great choice. For the next 3 months I see it going up but after that it's gonna crash hard to levels below $10K. So expressing mood I can say I'm bullish for short to middle term and bearish for long term.

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Great exhibition my friend! The price of Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency is mainly subject to supply and demand. Apart from that, there are other external factors that influence the fact of manipulation by the so-called "Whales". On the other hand, news such as the adoption of PayPal and the waiting for the results of the elections in the US also influence the behavior of rising prices in this market. In many of the points that you expose I agree with you. Let's hope that after a few weeks this price will remain or even exceed expectations as it would be a great help for the forum if our earnings multiply when obtaining the expected results.

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Always act with conscience and a sense of camaraderie and every time you make a post, stop for a moment and review in detail the posts of other members around you, so that you can give your respective reaction. :classic_wink:

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16 hours ago, Altcoinfan said:

For me it's neither buy nor sell now - it's hold. In about 2-3 months I think selling would be great choice. For the next 3 months I see it going up but after that it's gonna crash hard to levels below $10K. So expressing mood I can say I'm bullish for short to middle term and bearish for long term.

i think 10k might be too deep of a target actually, in the mean time we see bitcoin has recovered after that sudden fall yesterday to 14300$ and now its over 15200$, it seems like the bulls want to push it higher still.

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@duncun007to my own opinion or targeted point I will prefer to put a target at 14500$ as the market is full of volatility. Just exactly as it happened from 14300$ to 15500$ in just some few hours the RSI indicator can help to target the market.

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Bitcoin is a valuable coin.  Bitcoin prices fell sharply in March due to Covid 19.  Many people are scared because of the falling price but this fear did not last long. In a few days the price of Bitcoin reached 14 and its price is constantly rising.

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For now there a small fomo in the market on bitcoin and the price is rising day by day , so we can say its bullish for now but lets hope that the fear wont happen in the market because the price will definitely dump.

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Thanks for sharing this topic sir. I think it is a big help for us who are only starting in the crypto field of trading, we can know ho to analyze the movement of bitcoin or any other coins. As we all know now bitcoin price is kind of high now and many people got a good profit.

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20 hours ago, Babubu609 said:

@duncun007to my own opinion or targeted point I will prefer to put a target at 14500$ as the market is full of volatility. Just exactly as it happened from 14300$ to 15500$ in just some few hours the RSI indicator can help to target the market.

RSI is  a good indicator indeed but trust me when the selling pressure hits the market no indicator will be showing you how deep this dump will go, but the resistance and support areas will always show you where the dump might end.

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The volatility in bitcoin's price is its nature! so seeing bearish and bullish trends each period is normal in my opinion.. bitcoin is in a great situation these days and all of us know that! but by the same time it should rise more than this to say that it would reach new high prices again.. and i don't think that it would happen in the near future! because there are huge supplies and demands in some levels and they are waiting bitcoin to reach their prices to make it go down again..

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15 hours ago, MuhammadSh said:

and i don't think that it would happen in the near future! because there are huge supplies and demands in some levels and they are waiting bitcoin to reach their prices to make it go down again..

yeah exactly, and this is why I'm bearish on bitcoin in short term, because people tend to forget that since march we have gone up 300% and i think we will need to see a big healthy retracement.

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21 hours ago, duncun007 said:

the resistance and support areas will always show you where the dump might end

Yea you are right I experience such challenges while using the indicator  sometimes it does not show the reality about the dump market. All the way you share a good option to focuse on which is the resistance and support.

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7 hours ago, duncun007 said:

yeah exactly, and this is why I'm bearish on bitcoin in short term, because people tend to forget that since march we have gone up 300% and i think we will need to see a big healthy retracement.

Completely right! there are many predicts say that bitcoin would go down even these days or after a while! but it really needs to a healthy retracement as you said for sure.. and maybe it would reach low prices in the near future and that's what most of people don't keep in mind unfortunately especially those who buy bitcoin these days in high prices because they think that bitcoin will reach higher prices and they will earn good profits in a few days! 

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Bitcoin has been making some higher lows in the last few days, I can see little bit of profit taking and fear of missing out in the market; any break out might see up chase up to $17,000 over little below. For now, I don't have any serious gameplan with bitcoin, just studying the behaviour for now.

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14 hours ago, MuhammadSh said:

Completely right! there are many predicts say that bitcoin would go down even these days or after a while! but it really needs to a healthy retracement as you said for sure.. and maybe it would reach low prices in the near future and that's what most of people don't keep in mind unfortunately especially those who buy bitcoin these days in high prices because they think that bitcoin will reach higher prices and they will earn good profits in a few days! 

those who buy the top will be left hanging and in loss, people should have learned so by now because there were many people who bought bitcoin at 19k and 18k and look how long it took us to reach even close to these prices again.

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2 hours ago, duncun007 said:

those who buy the top will be left hanging and in loss, people should have learned so by now because there were many people who bought bitcoin at 19k and 18k and look how long it took us to reach even close to these prices again.

They don't expect that the price will go down "under of their buying prices" and that's really bad.. expecting only good things in this crypto world isn't really a good idea because there are always unexpected senarios! those who buy in high prices have two choices to do , waiting the price for going up again" and this may take many months" or sell their cryptocurrencies in low prices and lose a part of their capital.. and both of them is bad for sure!

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On 11/11/2020 at 10:57 AM, MuhammadSh said:

They don't expect that the price will go down "under of their buying prices" and that's really bad.. expecting only good things in this crypto world isn't really a good idea because there are always unexpected senarios! those who buy in high prices have two choices to do , waiting the price for going up again" and this may take many months" or sell their cryptocurrencies in low prices and lose a part of their capital.. and both of them is bad for sure!

i think people always miss on the fact that when you buy bitcoin at 20k and it goes down 20% which is down to 16k, you would have to wait for bitcoin to go up 25% to break even, thats why i dont like to play with bitcoin when its up so high.

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Thanks for that great information about bitcoin analysis. Bitcoin also experienced ups and downs on prices, we just need to buy bitcoin at the right time and sell when the price is high to gain profits. 

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Although the trend is highly bullish but extreme greed index is something to worry about because in a market in which passion and excitement overcome wisdom and logic, there is a chance of sudden crash. In this situation, if you have bought anything cheap, holding is safe but joining in the middle of storm can lead to unpleasant consequences. High greed means most traders act without considering all the aspects. When the greed index goes lower, the market will calm down and investing could be safer.

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At the time when this topic was shared several months ago, we were seeing this wonderful rise, but Bitcoin proved great strength and influence in the cryptocurrency and central currency market when it approached touching $ 20,000 in less than a month, at a speed that was not expected so that we would stop analyzing and buy in preparation for the upward journey.

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On 11/23/2020 at 1:28 PM, Brushless4500KV said:

Although the trend is highly bullish but extreme greed index is something to worry about because in a market in which passion and excitement overcome wisdom and logic, there is a chance of sudden crash. In this situation, if you have bought anything cheap, holding is safe but joining in the middle of storm can lead to unpleasant consequences. High greed means most traders act without considering all the aspects. When the greed index goes lower, the market will calm down and investing could be safer.

When bitcoin jumped over 19000$ i saw the greed index go to 96% which was the highest ever recorded greed in the market, all that was a reason for me to not hold bitcoin and rather just wait for it to come down to my orders around 16k as first target, and 12k as the deepest target.

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Data show traders neither bullish nor bearish over sub-$15.5K Bitcoin price. On-chain and crypto exchange data shows pro traders feel less confident about Bitcoin's bullish momentum under the $15,500 level. ... On the other hand, there are plenty of traders who are confident that the current bull

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3 hours ago, duncun007 said:

When bitcoin jumped over 19000$ i saw the greed index go to 96% which was the highest ever recorded greed in the market, all that was a reason for me to not hold bitcoin and rather just wait for it to come down to my orders around 16k as first target, and 12k as the deepest target.

It is because some people who still hadn't bought bitcoin, were anxious to join the market to not lose the opportunity anymore. Being hesitant about when to start a trade will lead to greed and regret. If prices have risen and someone has not started yet, it is better to forget about starting and wait to buy cheaper because there is a big risk of losing due to a sudden collapse. Today, bitcoin fell to $16.500 from $19.200 and this is the consequence of high greed index.

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I will prefer to comment more about the recent bull and bear bitcoin market that makes traders to be confused to either buy or sell. I like the bull market and likely bitcoin will not fall beyond $16600 which could be a good support, falling beyond it can result to bear market, and this is not what we want. If bitcoin can break the $17500 resistance, expecting it at $19000 after will be possible. 

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On 11/9/2020 at 2:33 PM, iloveyobit said:

For now there a small fomo in the market on bitcoin and the price is rising day by day , so we can say its bullish for now but lets hope that the fear wont happen in the market because the price will definitely dump.

Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency so the price of this coin is always volatile.  The price of Bitcoin depends on supply and demand.  The price of bitcoin is halving during the Corona epidemic and then many people sell bitcoin.  Users feared that Bitcoin might be dead, but Bitcoin was recovered.  And currently the price of Bitcoin is 40K.  Bitcoin has pumped a lot.  So we will not lose confidence in Bitcoin

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Economists at Singapore's United Overseas Bank (UOB) believe that the current strengthening of the British currency has ended. UOB considers that over the next 1-3 weeks, "the pound is likely to trade with a downward bias, but a more significant pullback would require breaking below 1.2670. On the other hand, if the pound breaks above 1.2770 (the 'strong resistance' level), it would indicate that it will likely trade within a range rather than pulling back lower."   The median forecast of analysts for the near term is as follows: 75% voted for the pair to move south, while the remaining 25% voted for a northward movement.   As for technical analysis, unlike the experts, all 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1 point north, although 15% of the latter signal overbought conditions. If the pair continues to fall, support levels and zones are at 1.2670-1.2700, 1.2575-1.2600, 1.2540, 1.2445-1.2465, 1.2405, 1.2300-1.2330. If the pair rises, it will encounter resistance at levels 1.2760, 1.2800-1.2820, 1.2885-1.2900.   No significant economic statistics are scheduled to be released in the UK next week.   USD/JPY: A Very Calm Week     The past week was surprisingly calm for the yen. USD/JPY moved within a super-narrow sideways channel of 156.60-157.00 for the first half of the week, but then, amid US data and Japanese macro statistics, the trading range expanded slightly to 156.36-157.70. Compared to the price swings at the end of April and early May, it's hard to believe this is the same currency pair. Interestingly, Japanese financial authorities have not officially confirmed whether they conducted intensive yen purchases on 29 April and 1 May to support its exchange rate. However, Bloomberg reports that comparing deposits at the Bank of Japan suggests that around ¥9.4 trillion ($60 billion) might have been spent on these currency interventions, a new monthly record for such financial operations.   However, if this $60 billion helped, it was only slightly – the dollar has already recovered half of its losses. Since interest rates in the US and Europe have not yet decreased, and the yen rate remains extremely low at 0.1%, officials from the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are trying to buy time until this gap starts to narrow. Comments from BoJ board member Seiji Adachi, who stated on 30 May that the Japanese central bank leaders could raise the interest rate, provided some support for the yen. However, the question of when this might happen remains open, and officials are reluctant to answer. In his traditional speech on Friday, 31 May, Japan's Minister of Finance, Shunichi Suzuki, reiterated that exchange rates should reflect fundamental indicators and that he would respond appropriately to excessive movements.   On Friday, 31 May, a block of important macroeconomic statistics on the state of the Japanese economy was released. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Tokyo showed that inflation rose to 2.2% y/y in May. In April, this figure was at 1.8%, matching a 26-month low. Core inflation in Tokyo also rose to 1.9% from 1.6% y/y, and the CPI excluding volatile food and energy prices increased from 1.8% to 2.2% y/y. (It should be noted that inflation in Tokyo is usually higher than the nationwide figures, which are published three weeks later. Therefore, the Tokyo CPI is a preliminary but not final indicator of inflation dynamics at the national level.)   The current rise in inflation could increase confidence in future BoJ monetary policy tightening. However, the fear of low inflation and a sharp yen appreciation deters the BoJ from raising the interest rate and narrowing the gap with other major global currencies' rates. A strong yen would harm national exporters. The decline in industrial production, which fell by -0.1% in April both month-on-month and year-on-year, does not encourage borrowing costs to rise.   The last note of the week for USD/JPY was struck at 157.25. United Overseas Bank (UOB) analysts believe that in the next 1-3 weeks, "the dollar has the potential for growth, but given the weak upward momentum, any advancement is likely to be slow. The 157.50 level might be difficult to overcome, and resistance at 158.00 is unlikely to be reached in the near future."   Speaking of the average forecast of experts, only 20% indicate a southward direction, while the remaining 80% adopt a neutral position and look east. Technical analysis tools show no such doubts or disagreements. Thus, 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1 point north, with 15% already in the overbought zone. It should be noted that if the green/north color of the indicators for the euro and the British pound indicates their strengthening, in the case of the yen, it conversely indicates its weakening. Therefore, traders may find it interesting to pay attention to the EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY pairs, whose dynamics have been impressive lately. The nearest support level is in the area of 156.25-156.60, followed by zones and levels at 155.50-155.90, 153.10-153.60, 151.85-152.35, 150.80-151.00, 149.70-150.00, 148.40, 147.30-147.60, 146.50. The nearest resistance is in the 157.40 zone, followed by 157.70-158.00, 158.60, and 160.00-160.20.   No significant events or publications regarding the state of the Japanese economy are expected next week. CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Bullish and Bearish Ethereum Prospects   For the second week, market participants' attention has been focused on the main altcoin. On 23 May, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved 19b-4 applications from eight issuers of spot exchange-traded funds based on Ethereum. (According to JP Morgan experts, this was dictated not by a desire to support digital assets but by a political decision aimed at supporting Joe Biden ahead of the US presidential elections.) Whatever the true reason for this regulatory move, everyone is now interested in where Ethereum prices will go. The newborn ETH-ETFs can only start trading after the SEC approves the S-1 applications. According to Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart, this could take "weeks or months," although it is very likely to happen in mid-June. According to DeFiance Capital CEO Arthur Cheong, Ethereum's price could rise to $4,500 even before trading begins. CCData analysts believe that within 100 days of the launch of ETH-ETFs, the price could reach $5,000 per coin. This forecast is based on linear regression and the price statistics of bitcoin after the launch of spot BTC-ETFs. CCData's analysis assumes that inflows into similar Ethereum funds will be at least 50% of inflows into Bitcoin-ETFs, which means about $3.9 billion over a 100-day period.   Popular analyst Lark Davis has forecasted future growth for bitcoin to $150,000 and Ethereum to $15,000, explaining such a sharp price increase by the emerging market dynamics. The main reason for growth, Davis also cites spot BTC-ETFs, to which ETH-ETFs will now join. This will further fuel the cryptocurrency market's enthusiasm. Currently, spot BTC-ETFs hold 1,002,343 coins (≈ $68 billion), which is about 5% of the circulating supply of the flagship asset. Davis believes this impressive figure clearly indicates growing recognition of cryptocurrency and interest from institutional investors, especially from the US.   Strike CEO Jack Mallers predicts that during the ongoing bull rally, bitcoin could reach $250,000 and possibly rise in price to $1 million. On a podcast with Pomp Investments founder Anthony Pompliano, Mallers explained his bold forecast by stating that bitcoin is still at an early stage of development. According to him, the bond market is currently facing problems, so central banks may inject a significant amount of liquidity into the financial system to stabilize it. This liquidity influx will trigger an increase in the value of risky assets, including the leading cryptocurrency.   Jack Mallers disagrees with the notion that bitcoin is a bubble or a tool for speculation. The asset is becoming increasingly popular among financial giants on Wall Street, and its limited supply of 21 million coins makes BTC highly resistant to inflation, unlike fiat currencies and gold. "Bitcoin can be called the hardest form of money – thanks to the fixed issuance schedule and halvings every four years. The release rate of new coins gradually decreases, thereby increasing bitcoin's long-term value," argued the Strike CEO.   Analysts from financial investment company Motley Fool also target a six-figure number. They suggested that bitcoin's rate could rise to $400,000 and possibly even reach $1 million. The reason, which has been mentioned many times, is the influx of money from institutional investors through spot ETFs. Motley Fool analysts noted that more and more pension funds and hedge funds, managing multi-billion dollar sums, are entering the bitcoin market. Thanks to cryptocurrency ETFs, they can easily include bitcoin (and soon Ethereum) in their investment portfolios.   According to analysts, around 700 investment companies have already invested in such funds. Nevertheless, the share of institutional investors in bitcoin-ETFs is currently only about 10% of the total. Motley Fool estimates that if financial institutions invest about 5% of their assets in bitcoin, the market capitalization of the first cryptocurrency could exceed $7 trillion, which explains its forecasted rate of $400,000.   Considerably less optimism was heard in the forecast of Bloomberg senior analyst Mike McGlone. According to him, bitcoin's volatility leaves it trailing gold and the US dollar in investment appeal. Furthermore, he believes that stocks will soon crash amid the expected recession, but BTC will suffer even more than the stock market. McGlone emphasized that the Tether (USDT) stablecoin, pegged to the US dollar, typically trades twice as much per day as bitcoin. "I can access the US dollar anywhere in the world from my phone using Tether. Tether is the number one trading token. It's the number one cryptocurrency for trading. It's the dollar. The whole world has moved to the dollar. Why? Because it's the least bad of all fiat currencies," the Bloomberg expert stated.   While Mike McGlone merely downgraded bitcoin's attractiveness, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson simply buried it. He equated bitcoin to a religion and stated that the industry has outgrown its dependence on it. According to Hoskinson, "the industry no longer needs bitcoin to survive." He pointed out critical threats to the leading cryptocurrency, including insufficient adaptability and dependence on the Proof-of-Work algorithm. Franklin Templeton analysts, on the contrary, consider L2 protocols, along with Ordinals, Runes, and DeFi primitives, as one of the main drivers of bitcoin's innovation revival. Strike CEO Jack Mallers defended the first cryptocurrency. According to him, the Lightning Network, created for instant and cheap transactions, a second-layer solution based on the BTC blockchain, can further increase the demand for the first cryptocurrency. Mallers believes that thanks to this, bitcoin can be used for everyday purchases, such as paying for a cup of coffee. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes called the native token of the Cardano blockchain (ADA) "dog shit" due to its low use in protocols.   As of the time of writing this review on the evening of Friday, 31 May, ADA is trading at 0.45 USD per coin, while bitcoin and Ethereum are faring significantly better: BTC/USD is trading at $67,600, and ETH/USD at $3,790. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $2.53 trillion ($2.55 trillion a week ago). The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index remained almost unchanged over 7 days, staying in the Greed zone at 73 points (74 a week ago).   It should be noted that ETH/USD failed to break through the $4,000 resistance this past week. The local maximum was recorded on Monday, 27 May, at $3,974. The lack of an immediate pump is explained by the fact that everyone who wanted to buy Ethereum in anticipation of the SEC's historic decision already did so. Meanwhile, according to some analysts, there is a high probability that immediately after the launch of the long-awaited spot exchange funds, Ethereum will enter a deep drawdown, similar to what happened in January with bitcoin. Then, over 12 days, it fell by 21%.   One of the key reasons for BTC's drawdown at that time was the unlocking of GBTC fund assets from Grayscale, which was converted into a spot fund from a trust. It began losing investments daily at a rate of $500 million. It is possible that something similar could happen with Ethereum, where Grayscale's ETHE fund holds $11 billion worth of ETH. As soon as this fund is converted into a spot fund and its assets are unlocked, short-term investors might start taking profits, potentially causing ETH/USD to fall to the strong support zone of $2,900-3,200. Pessimists among bearish factors also cite the uncertain legal status of the altcoin, as the SEC has not yet clearly defined whether ETH is a commodity or a security. Additionally, the regulator has many complaints about the staking program.   Staking is a way to earn cryptocurrency by "locking" a certain amount of coins in a wallet on the Proof of Stake (PoS) algorithm to support the network. In return, the user receives rewards in the form of additional coins. According to Wall Street legend Peter Brandt, "the biggest disasters in the cryptocurrency sphere that are yet to happen will be related to staking." The expert noted that such assets as Ethereum are often rented out to earn such income, often in the form of interest, which strongly reminds him of collapsed financial pyramids. As staking becomes more widespread, Brandt warned, it could attract increased attention from central banks, treasuries, and other authorities. This could lead to tighter regulation, significantly altering the crypto space and potentially resulting in the cessation of staking and bankruptcies for those involved. NordFX Analytical Group   Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.   #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market   https://nordfx.com/ 
    • Даа, кроме нас на форуме остались рекламщики обменников и все). А у вас было монета not, он очень хорошо вырос. Надо было покупать сразу после листинга. Даа, упускаем моменты). Биткоин продолжает коррекцию делать, а я купил какие то щитки и вынужден ждать. 
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