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Whited35

Crypto Fear and Greed Index (CFGI)

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Crypto Fear and Greed Index (CFGI)  is used to detect  “overbought” or “oversold” state in the cryptocurrency markets for Bitcoin and other altcoins. If you are a cryptocurrency trader, you have to take care of so many things.  You know, the cryptocurrency market's behavior is generally very emotional so this tool can be very useful for traders if they are in FOMO. This index will be updated once in a day to exhibit values 0-100.

To know more about how this index is determined, visit their official website and to check updated information for this index, check the real-time updated following image. 

 

fear-and-greed-index.png

 

Let's see how you can get benefits from this index.

Extreme fear(CFGI-0):-It indicates investors are too worried to sell their holdings. It can be a buying opportunity for you. 

 

Neutral(CFGI-50):-Neither oversold nor overbought state in the cryptocurrency markets, you might still hold your assets if CFGI exhibiting a value around 50

 

Too greedy(CFGI-100):-It indicates cryptocurrency overbought condition. You might sell your holdings to get benefits. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Whited35
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Does the index includes Bitcoin and the top altcoins, with no separate indexes for each of them? It would have been nice if there are separate entries for each crypto coin, but if it can't be done because there is too much work involved, then that's fine too.

 

I was also going to ask where they get the data and how accurate the index is, but it looks like they have already explained themselves.

Spoiler

Data Sources

We are gathering data from the five following sources. Each data point is valued the same as the day before in order to visualize a meaningful progress in sentiment change of the crypto market.

First of all, the current index is for bitcoin only (we offer separate indices for large alt coins soon), because a big part of it is the volatility of the coin price.

But let’s list all the different factors we’re including in the current index:

Volatility (25 %)

We’re measuring the current volatility and max. drawdowns of bitcoin and compare it with the corresponding average values of the last 30 days and 90 days. We argue that an unusual rise in volatility is a sign of a fearful market.

Market Momentum/Volume (25%)

Also, we’re measuring the current volume and market momentum (again in comparison with the last 30/90 day average values) and put those two values together. Generally, when we see high buying volumes in a positive market on a daily basis, we conclude that the market acts overly greedy / too bullish.

Social Media (15%)

While our reddit sentiment analysis is still not in the live index (we’re still experimenting some market-related key words in the text processing algorithm), our twitter analysis is running. There, we gather and count posts on various hashtags for each coin (publicly, we show only those for Bitcoin) and check how fast and how many interactions they receive in certain time frames). A unusual high interaction rate results in a grown public interest in the coin and in our eyes, corresponds to a greedy market behaviour.

Surveys (15%) currently paused

Together with strawpoll.com (disclaimer: we own this site, too), quite a large public polling platform, we’re conducting weekly crypto polls and ask people how they see the market. Usually, we’re seeing 2,000 - 3,000 votes on each poll, so we do get a picture of the sentiment of a group of crypto investors. We don’t give those results too much attention, but it was quite useful in the beginning of our studies. You can see some recent results here.

Dominance (10%)

The dominance of a coin resembles the market cap share of the whole crypto market. Especially for Bitcoin, we think that a rise in Bitcoin dominance is caused by a fear of (and thus a reduction of) too speculative alt-coin investments, since Bitcoin is becoming more and more the safe haven of crypto. On the other side, when Bitcoin dominance shrinks, people are getting more greedy by investing in more risky alt-coins, dreaming of their chance in next big bull run. Anyhow, analyzing the dominance for a coin other than Bitcoin, you could argue the other way round, since more interest in an alt-coin may conclude a bullish/greedy behaviour for that specific coin.

Trends (10%)

We pull Google Trends data for various Bitcoin related search queries and crunch those numbers, especially the change of search volumes as well as recommended other currently popular searches. For example, if you check Google Trends for "Bitcoin", you can’t get much information from the search volume. But currently, you can see that there is currently a +1,550% rise of the query „bitcoin price manipulation“ in the box of related search queries (as of 05/29/2018). This is clearly a sign of fear in the market, and we use that for our index.

 

source: https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

Looking at the chart for the current year, I think at least they got the part right about the March crash and the days during Bitcoin's halving period.

 

Too bad the website doesn't predict the CFGI for tomorrow onwards 😁 . But at least traders can use this to look at previous readings and see if there is a trend going on. I'll bookmark this: it's worth it.

 

P.S. Can you try to add the self-updating image from the website into here? 

It's fixed now. Thanks. 😊

 

Edited by kyoukage01
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New to the Cryptotalk forum? Here's something that might help you get started:

https://cryptotalk.org/topic/24401-forum-tutorials-tips-and-tricks-for-newbies-compilation/

 

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On 9/9/2020 at 7:19 AM, kyoukage01 said:

Does the index includes Bitcoin and the top altcoins, with no separate indexes for each of them?

I expect the same but unfortunately, Index is collectively for Bitcoin and all BTC sensitive altcoins(In trading pairs 😉)

On 9/9/2020 at 7:19 AM, kyoukage01 said:

oo bad the website doesn't predict the CFGI for tomorrow onwards 😁 . But at least traders can use this to look at previous readings and see if there is a trend going on. I'll bookmark this: it's worth it.

I have tested it for about one month but unbelievably, it is working no matter it is updated once in a day. Clearly, they consider so many factors. Let's analyzed yourself, yesterday it was 41 but now index showing value 38, check the price of BTC and altcoins, prices are slightly dropped 😊.

On 9/9/2020 at 7:19 AM, kyoukage01 said:

P.S. Can you try to add the self-updating image from the website into here?

Oh no luck, I already tried but it is looking like whole texts should be formatted in html code to insert the link but it is not working in that way. If I insert a code for live updating image, it just exhibit a code not the image.

Edited by Whited35
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On 9/9/2020 at 3:46 PM, Whited35 said:

I expect the same but unfortunately, Index is collectively for Bitcoin and all BTC sensitive altcoins(In trading pairs 😉)

Oh well, beggars can't be choosers. We can still find a use for the index when analyzing altcoin prices. We'll just have to consider a bit of a margin of error.

 

On 9/9/2020 at 3:46 PM, Whited35 said:

Oh no luck, I already tried but it is looking like whole texts should be formatted in html code to insert the link but it is not working in that way. If I insert a code for live updating image, it just exhibit a code not the image.

No dice on my side here as well. I tried inserting the code on my previous post but got the same result as you did, that's why I asked. Thanks for trying. I'll just have to bookmark the website as well.

 

... ... ...

 

I tried getting the data from the previous years, but it looks like 2018 is the earliest date they had, as indicated in the picture below. It would be nice if they had the data back from at least the year during Bitcoin's second halving.

image.thumb.png.55d1e822298c400fe0e1f7c3f9fa55c4.png

 

Edited by kyoukage01
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New to the Cryptotalk forum? Here's something that might help you get started:

https://cryptotalk.org/topic/24401-forum-tutorials-tips-and-tricks-for-newbies-compilation/

 

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On 9/10/2020 at 7:54 AM, kyoukage01 said:

I tried getting the data from the previous years, but it looks like 2018 is the earliest date they had, as indicated in the picture below. It would be nice if they had the data back from at least the year during Bitcoin's second halving.

@kyoukage01 Well, yes but no worries. Index is working well now so that we can make a solid trading strategies. Thanks for your chart with marked indicators. Keep tracking on this index you might later realized, it is unbelievably working for your satisfactions😉

Edited by Whited35
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This indicator provides false information about the buying and selling process. I have put it in front of a challenge with the Binance platform and many cryptocurrency markets, and the result was that it is different from the rest, not all the time, but it may cause problems in buying and selling if we rely on it.

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Usually the data on the index is less accurate, it's different if we look at the chart,

but on the other hand such an index is also very helpful for beginners who don't understand trading charts and want to know market conditions,

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4 hours ago, ayatoslaw said:

Usually the data on the index is less accurate, it's different if we look at the chart,

@ayatoslaw Exactly you are right on that. At least this index is providing the best possible estimation to analyze the market behaviors. Active traders manage to perform all the essential analysis before performing the trades so as you have said, it can be extremely useful for beginners(Experienced players in the crypto trading field can also get benefits from CFGI). 

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On 9/11/2020 at 12:58 AM, magd said:

This indicator provides false information about the buying and selling process. I have put it in front of a challenge with the Binance platform and many cryptocurrency markets, and the result was that it is different from the rest, not all the time, but it may cause problems in buying and selling if we rely on it.

The index does not provide information on the "buying and selling process", I think it is more a measurement about crypto users' market behavior. We can use CFGI for looking at people's sentiments and do not have to rely too much on it, just like any other charts or influential people's predictions.

 

As @Whited35 has mentioned:

On 9/9/2020 at 3:46 PM, Whited35 said:

I expect the same but unfortunately, Index is collectively for Bitcoin and all BTC sensitive altcoins(In trading pairs 😉)

In my opinion, the index may be accurate for BTC and the top altcoins (stablecoins not included) and the lower the coin's ranking, the less accurate it becomes. This is the reason why I said that we should consider some margin of error if this chart is to be used on altcoins.

On 9/10/2020 at 10:09 AM, kyoukage01 said:

We can still find a use for the index when analyzing altcoin prices. We'll just have to consider a bit of a margin of error.

The CFGI is more accurate with BTC and perhaps with ETH and becomes less so with other coins. The website explained the basis of their data on the chart, maybe they pay more attention to the top coins since those get the most attention on social media which in turn is one of their criteria for analysis.

 

Taking not-so popular altcoins into account will only blur the chart, not to mention it would be too much work for them. If only there are individual charts for each and every coin so we can get a better view of our favorite coins, but alas, there ain't any.

 

Edited by kyoukage01
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New to the Cryptotalk forum? Here's something that might help you get started:

https://cryptotalk.org/topic/24401-forum-tutorials-tips-and-tricks-for-newbies-compilation/

 

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30 minutes ago, kyoukage01 said:

In my opinion, the index may be accurate for BTC and the top altcoins (stablecoins not included) and the lower the coin's ranking, the less accurate it becomes. This is the reason why I said that we should consider some margin of error if this chart is to be used on altcoins.

In my experience, index is providing working estimations for majorly Bitcoin and top 20 altcoins.They took at least 24 hours to update the value on index which is not bad as they perform some researchers during that time. At least I check the site twice a day because mostly I do not  find enough time to read all the news updates(which could affect the cryptocurrency markets) in the crypto world. 

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On 9/7/2020 at 12:07 PM, Whited35 said:

Crypto Fear and Greed Index (CFGI)  is used to detect  “overbought” or “oversold” state in the cryptocurrency markets for Bitcoin and other altcoins. If you are a cryptocurrency trader, you have to take care of so many things.  You know, the cryptocurrency market's behavior is generally very emotional so this tool can be very useful for traders if they are in FOMO. This index will be updated once in a day to exhibit values 0-100.

To know more about how this index is determined and to check updated information for this index, click on the following image.

 

CGFI

 

Let's see how you can get benefits from this index.

Extreme fear(CFGI-0):-It indicates investors are too worried to sell their holdings. It can be a buying opportunity for you. 

 

Neutral(CFGI-50):-Neither oversold nor overbought state in the cryptocurrency markets, you might still hold your assets if CFGI exhibiting a value around 50

 

Too greedy(CFGI-100):-It indicates cryptocurrency overbought condition. You might sell your holdings to get benefits. 

 

 

 

Before I was try to use this index for trading because the arrow was indicate strong sell, so I was place sell order but my order was going wrong, but within 24 hrs the arrow was still shows strong sell, so I was discover that index is not for live trade but it only shows the market idea. 

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1 minute ago, guatazoo said:

Before I was try to use this index for trading because the arrow was indicate strong sell, so I was place sell order but my order was going wrong, but within 24 hrs the arrow was still shows strong sell, so I was discover that index is not for live trade but it only shows the market idea. 

Hello, I did not get your point clearly. It only works as an estimation not as a real time trading tool.If you are an active trader, I kindly ask you to perform some sort of technical analysis. Be active to follow the charts. This index is updated within 24 hours, get it clearly first. 


 

 

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On 9/7/2020 at 12:07 PM, Whited35 said:

 

CGFI

 

Can you link the site where someone could find that to the op? I know i can google it but it just would be helpful if i wanted to link this post for someone.

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3 hours ago, rekter said:

Can you link the site where someone could find that to the op? I know i can google it but it just would be helpful if i wanted to link this post for someone.

@rekter I might quote some lines from my own topic. Have you noticed, I have made it more easier. User has to click on image to land on that page. 

 

On 9/7/2020 at 2:52 PM, Whited35 said:

To know more about how this index is determined and to check updated information for this index, click on the following image.

Try clicking on image attached to my topic above. I also attempted to add the live updating link but code was not properly supported by this forum. Anyway, I updated a link. Check now 😊

Edited by Whited35
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3 hours ago, Whited35 said:

@rekter I might quote some lines from my own topic. Have you noticed, I have made it more easier. User has to click on image to land on that page. 

Cool, I see that this is index is for all major cryptos grouped together. I guess it is one way to predict overall bull market, but it would be real handy if i could see fear / greed for individual altcoins.

 

By the way if you are looking for more experimental social indicators for cryptos, take a look at the https://app.santiment.net/ if that isn't already on your radar.

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15 minutes ago, rekter said:

By the way if you are looking for more experimental social indicators for cryptos, take a look at the https://app.santiment.net/ if that isn't already on your radar.

@rekter Thanks for this link.I can find this link in my bookmark list but it is clear, I have barely visited this site. Mostly, I prefer to visit https://www.bittsanalytics.com/sentiment-index/ It helps me to detect market behaviors of Bitcoin and so many valuable altcoins. For your mentioned site, it is also looking cool.

 

1164068818_Screenshot(19).thumb.png.2b52d36e8d7c3ce6eec927ac78e4b45b.png

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On 9/7/2020 at 3:07 PM, Whited35 said:

Crypto Fear and Greed Index (CFGI)  is used to detect  “overbought” or “oversold” state in the cryptocurrency markets for Bitcoin and other altcoins

@Whited35  its means this cfgi will help is in any situation to predicted the price of any currency based on the currency trading volume,supply..so if this indicators show us the right way of price then its Very helpful to us.. Becuase mostly member come in crypto world and start do trading without any knowledge so if they follow your instructions then they can easily have an idea..                     

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56 minutes ago, Dorjoy12 said:

@Whited35  its means this cfgi will help is in any situation to predicted the price of any currency based on the currency trading volume,supply

@Dorjoy12 No ! I kindly ask you to read topic once again 😊. This is an index to predict market behaviors, not the price, volume or any technical things. It exhibits the values between 0-100 and according to that overbought or oversold situation can be predicted. 


 

 

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I used tradingview indicators to trade options and sometimes i earned profit and sometimes i lose. But it's not bad for me because trading view and some of it's tools they help me to find the best exchange to earn profit in arbitrage most of the time.

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Time is the ultimate weapon!

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4 hours ago, Calvinpriva said:

I used tradingview indicators to trade options and sometimes i earned profit and sometimes i lose. But it's not bad for me because trading view and some of it's tools they help me to find the best exchange to earn profit in arbitrage most of the time.

Are you trying to cite https://www.tradingview.com/ideas/indicator/ ? If yes, clearly I am new to this indicator. Is it perfectly working in your case? Let me know something about it. If I find it as useful, I surely consider it as my trading tool 😊


 

 

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This is pretty great news they have been one of th ebest I can imagine, I have not see such a perfect explainer, than from you @Whited35, ou posts are just perfect to read , I never knew there was such , I only knew of investment index measuring tools that are over the internet but the truth is this is a new one and am going to make sure am following you ,I need to read your posts even more.

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Let's see if I can read the CFGI chart and explain it correctly.

 

For this example we'll use the chart reading for this month. See the picture below.

Spoiler

image.thumb.png.114a84eaeb46bfaa7417e3d36a481fd4.png

 

The second picture is the price of BTC to USD during this month.

Spoiler

image.png.266b4920a096762586ab9c5ea4a7f453.png

 

During the first days of September, the CFGI index fell to 40 (fear) by Sept. 4. This coincided with BTC crashing down to ~$10,000 from nearly ~$12,000. Market analysts at that point were pondering on whether there will be a 'bull' or 'bear' season coming up, and whether or not BTC will crash even further.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/what-now-for-bitcoin-price-september-starts-with-abrupt-btc-sell-off

 

The CFGI was consistent at the 40+ range during those first two weeks, so it would be safe to assume that we are now in 'bear' season. Despite BTC rising slightly to ~$11,000 the highest CFGI index got only to 52 (neutral, Sept. 20) and so there was a chance that BTC prices will fall again, which it did. Had the CFGI index gone to the greed range, we might be able to see BTC go bull and reach the ~$12,000 price range again.

 

The index being just at 40+ can make a trader nervous as well. There is a possibility that it could go even lower, at the 20+ range, indicating that BTC can go even lower than $10,000. This is in line with some crypto users thinking that "the ~$10,000 is the psychological point". It would take skill and experience to trade profitably now at this time.

 

The conclusion? We are definitely in a 'bear' season, and we'll still get stuck at the ~$10,000 range for a few more days at least. Now, with the way the CFGI index is rated now, this would make for a critical decision for crypto users, as anything may happen at this point. The CFGI may begin to go even lower as BTC crashes down. Or the index might indicate greediness and BTC price may rise, creating an opportunity for investors.

 

Of course, you guys should feel free to make your own analysis. What I just wrote is only from a beginner's point of view after all.

 

Edited by kyoukage01
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New to the Cryptotalk forum? Here's something that might help you get started:

https://cryptotalk.org/topic/24401-forum-tutorials-tips-and-tricks-for-newbies-compilation/

 

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@Mike1515 I also did not know there was such an index, but the truth is really verified in different ways,I have also heard of the currency strength index in forex but in crypto I have never heard of it, but thats a good thing if its an addition to the traders bag.

The first time I have heard of it 

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Thanks @Irungu That is really important , but truth is so many people will not understand that fear and greed are their greatest enemy in trading and it requires a lot of resilience to kow what to do  and how to handle everything perfectly.

@Calvinpriva I also use a lot of trade view indicators, whether in which ever instrument am trading, |Oil ,metals and even indices All on trade view, its a great place to actually make some good trading friends

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11 hours ago, kyoukage01 said:

The index being just at 40+ can make a trader nervous as well. There is a possibility that it could go even lower, at the 20+ range, indicating that BTC can go even lower than $10,000. This is in line with some crypto users thinking that "the ~$10,000 is the psychological point". It would take skill and experience to trade now at this time.

Nicely explained. In overall, CFGI is working correctly according to your experience, right ? Index is showing value 39 for today and we are seeing more possibilities that market could follow bearish trend for Bitcoin and other major altcoins. Personally, I believe Bitcoin price may not go down to break psychological $10K price mark. 


 

 

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    • Эксперты связывают коррекцию с продажами на фондовом рынке, укреплением доллара и страхом инвесторов из-за замедления падения ставки ФРС.
    • Вера в рост BTC и ETH падает: эксперт ссылается на метрики опционов, которые прямо на это указывают   Трейдер Гордон Грант уверен, что значительное снижение подразумеваемой волатильности (IV - Implied Volatility) базовых опционов ATM «на деньгах» на Биткоин и Эфириум наиболее точно отражает настроение трейдеров. Он считает, что данная ситуация указывает на существенное снижение веры трейдеров в рост цен на ведущие криптовалюты в ближайшее время. Мнение Гранта опубликовало издание The Block.   Согласно представленным трейдером метрикам, где он сравнивает изменения цен на недельные и месячные контракты на опционы ETH, видно что  ATM c конца апреля буквально рухнула на 30% (с 88% до 58%).   BTC ATM обвалилась в тех же пропорциях. Изменение стоимости страйка опциона на главную криптовалюту «на деньгах» на том же временном диапазоне показывает обвал с 80% до почти 50%.   Гордон Грант считает, что такая ситуация на рынке опционов указывает на то, что продавцы после произошедшего халвинга не верят в рост Биткоина. По крайней мере в ближайшее время они этого точно не ожидают. Графики показывают, что опционные трейдеры утратили надежду на рост лидеров криптовалютного рынка, поэтому перестают холдить. Проданные контракты и создали это крутое пике.   Грант прокомментировал ситуацию так: «Cреднесрочная структура IV опционов показывает крутой перекос, который произошёл лавинообразно вследствие вышеупомянутой динамики котировок. Также ситуация связана с потенциальным возбуждением волатильности ведущей криптовалюты во второй половине 2024 года и в следующем году».   Грант указывает на то, что на рынке опционов на данный момент присутствует уверенность в том, что цена исполнения будет значительно ниже ожидаемой ранее. Участники рынка опционов, согласно метрикам, считают с равной долей вероятности, что Биткоин к концу года достигнет $75 000 и $100 000 соответственно. Это сравнимо с ситуацией в марте, когда на рынке была уверенность в том, что курс поднимется выше $73 000.   Грант считает, что ходлеры очень поздно пришли на рынок, чтобы получить высокую прибыль от волатильности до халвинга. При этом стали спешно уходить, когда премии стали слишком «жирными», что также послужило причиной обвала ATM.   На сегодняшний день премии настолько снизились, что BTC опционы с экспирацией на $100 000 продаются уже с дисконтом в 10%, при том что ещё в декабре премия составляла 20%. Вера рынка в то, что цена достигнет данного значения к концу года, существенно снизилась.   Стоит напомнить, что 1 мая котировки Bitcoin упали ниже $57 000.   Что касается прогнозов других аналитиков, то отметим, что ещё в апреле специалисты Glassnode писали о том, что график цены Биткоина формирует дно в области $60 000 — 66 000. При этом они предупредили, что если цена главной криптовалюты упадёт ниже указанных значений, то такая ситуация спровоцирует панику на рынке и приведёт к лавинообразному обвалу стоимости BTC.   Аналитики JPMorgan предрекали подобный исход. Их прогноз был куда более пессимистическим. В марте они предсказывали, что после халвинга Биткоин уйдёт на коррекцию вплоть до $42 000.  
    • Я про лаймы в смысле потенциально интересной инвестиции, представляется вполне способной порадовать инвестора) Удачи в новых монетах, все может быть
    • Доброго времени суток, уважаемые пользователи!Информируем Вас о добавлении новых направлений,Мы сделали минимальную сумму обмена и лучший курс.1. Газпромбанк → Tether USDT TRC202. Газпромбанк → Tether USDT ERC203.Газпромбанк → Tether USDT BEP204. Tether USDT TRC20 → Газпромбанк5. Tether USDT BEP20 → Газпромбанк6. Tether USDT ERC20 → Газпромбанк7. Bitcoin BTC → Газпромбанк8. Tether USDT BEP20 → BTБ9. Tether USDT TRC20 → BTБ10. Tether USDT ERC20 → BTБ11. Bitcoin BTC → ВТБ12. USDCoin ТRC20 USDC → Сбербанк13. USDCoin ТRC20 USDC → Тинькофф14. USDCoin ТRC20 USDC → Газпромбанк15. USDCoin ТRC20 USDC → Альфа-Банк16. USDCoin ТRC20 USDC → ВТБ17. USDCoin ТRC20 USDC → РайфайзенбанкДобавляем новые направления-каждый день, для удобности можете отслеживать наш Telegram-канал , В канале мы уведомляем подписчиков о розыгрышах, акциях, новостях о экономике, финансах и мошеннических схемах-чтобы обезопасить Вас!
    • В 2024 году на рынок вышли токены с капитализацией $8,6 млрд   Известный криптовалютный эксперт Тор Хартвигсен опубликовал сообщение в социальной сети X, в котором рассказал о новых альткоинах, появившихся за первые 4 месяца 2024 года. Он заверил, что участники рынка могли наблюдать значительный рост предложения альтернативных цифровых валют. Аналитик отметил самые главные стартапы, которые вспомнил и подсчитал рыночную (MCAP), а также их полностью разводненную, капитализацию (FDV).   Эксперт опубликовал соответствующую таблицу, в которой наглядно продемонстрировал ключевые показатели. Исследователь отметил, что большинство из активов — это проекты Binance IEO. Тор Хартвигсен подчеркнул, что «на рынок вышло уже $8,6 млрд дополнительных ликвидных поставок». При этом в ближайшие годы будет разблокировано в общей сложности еще $70,5 млрд по текущему курсу.
    • CryptoNews of the Week     – Investors may not see a rise in the price of the main cryptocurrency to new historical highs in the coming months. Optimism about the launch of cryptocurrency ETFs in Hong Kong quickly dwindled, and bitcoin began to search for its bottom again. Liquidations of long positions reached $230 million per day, according to CoinGlass monitoring. It seems that bearish sentiments arose because the trading volumes of new ETFs in Hong Kong were significantly lower than expected, which led to a capital outflow from BTC-ETFs on US exchanges. According to Glassnode analysts, bullish sentiments persist as the market prefers the "buy on the dip" approach. However, they acknowledge that losing support at around $60,000 could lead to a crash in the BTC price to $52,000. Another expert, Alan Santana, believes bitcoin could fall even lower, possibly to $30,000.   – Legendary trader, analyst, and head of Factor LLC, Peter Brandt, has allowed for a 25% probability that bitcoin has already formed another peak (ATH) in the current cycle on March 14 at a high of $73,745. The expert referred to the concept of "exponential decay," which describes a process of decreasing growth by a constant percentage over a specific period. "Historically, bitcoin has traded within approximately four-year cycles often associated with halvings. After the initial bull rally, there were three more, each 80% less powerful than the previous in terms of price growth," the specialist explained. "In my analysis, I estimated the probability [of such a scenario] at 25%. However, I trust the report I published in February more. [...] The 'pre/post-halving' cycle construction suggests that the current bullish trend will reach its peak in the range of $140,000–160,000 somewhere in late summer/early autumn 2025," clarified Peter Brandt. Giovanni Santostasi, CEO of Quantonomy, questioned the appropriateness of applying the theory of exponential decay in this particular case. "We have three data points if we exclude the period before the [first] halving, and effectively only two when looking at the ratios. This is insufficient for conducting any significant statistical analysis," Santostasi commented on Brandt's assumption. According to his own power-law model, the peak of the fourth cycle is expected around December 2025, at approximately $210,000. It is worth noting that not only Giovanni Santostasi but also many other participants in the crypto market are counting on the continuation of the bull rally and achieving a new ATH. For example, Glassnode analyst James Check hopes that the BTC rate at this stage will reach $250,000. Even Peter Brandt himself mentioned $200,000 as a potential target in the February report he cited.   – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has examined the first cryptocurrency and its impact on global markets in a new report. The organisation recognises the asset's ability to positively influence the economy. According to the IMF, digital gold is "the key to autonomy" for many countries in difficult financial situations. The report highlights the growing popularity of bitcoin and its acceptance in various jurisdictions, while the tense geopolitical situation has made assets like bitcoin and gold "more relevant."   – According to analysts from Spot On Chain, their forecasting model, developed using an extensive dataset, takes into account halvings, interest rate cycles, ETF factors, venture investor activity, and bitcoin sales by miners. Using the artificial intelligence platform Vertex AI from Google Cloud, Spot On Chain obtained price forecasts for bitcoin for the years 2024-2025. According to calculations, the price of the first cryptocurrency will be in the range of $56,000-70,000 from May to July, characterised by increased volatility. In the second half of 2024, there is a 63% probability that BTC will rise to $100,000. "This forecast signals prevailing bullish sentiments in the market, which will be facilitated by the expected reduction in interest rates [by the US Federal Reserve]. This could increase the demand for risk assets such as stocks and bitcoin," representatives of Spot On Chain explained. According to their data, there is a "convincing probability" – 42% – that in the first half of 2025, digital gold will surpass the $150,000 mark, as the first cryptocurrency typically updates its historical maximum 6-12 months after each halving. If we consider the entire year of 2025, the chances of growth to $150,000 increase to 70%.   – Cathy Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, confirmed her long-term forecast for Ethereum. In her opinion, the main altcoin is capable of catching up with bitcoin. She believes that by 2032, its market capitalization will reach an impressive $20 trillion. Based on current values, the main altcoin should consistently trade above $160,000 by that time. Highlighting her views, Cathy Wood emphasized that technologically, Ethereum is more advanced compared to the flagship cryptocurrency. Moreover, at the moment, it remains the most in-demand platform for deploying smart contracts and decentralized applications of any complexity. In March, the price of ETH exceeded $4,000, but this was followed by a deep correction coinciding with geopolitical escalation in the Middle East, leading investors to flee from high-risk assets. Instead, they focused on diversification and began investing capital in traditional financial instruments. In light of these events, the key beneficiaries were the dollar and US Treasury bonds, as well as precious metals.    – Mark Yusko, CEO of Morgan Creek Capital, expects a massive inflow of funds into the cryptocurrency market as wealth estimated at $30 trillion from baby boomers seeks to enter digital assets. According to the businessman, capital flows will most likely come from them – those born between 1946 and 1964 – through pension accounts managed by advisors. (According to the Investment Advisor Association, in 2022, US financial advisors managed assets worth more than $114 trillion). Yusko mentioned that the introduction of BTC-ETFs has significantly changed demand. However, the full effect of this is yet to be felt. "I believe that within 12 months, $300 billion will enter this area – this is 1% of the $30 trillion. In fact, this is more money than has ever been converted into bitcoin in 15 years. We've only been working with ETFs for about three months, and we've received about 10% of what I think comes into this area from registered investment advisors who control all the boomers' money," stated Yusko, adding that the inflow could potentially increase the crypto market's capitalization to $6 trillion.   – American regulators, according to the administrator of Bitcoin.org known as Cobra, are preparing to impose a complete ban on self-custody of cryptocurrency. This means that US citizens will have to involve intermediaries who will store digital assets. "If you think the government won't come for your bitcoins, you simply haven't paid attention to this," Cobra scares readers on the X social network page. Cobra recently assured subscribers that a split might occur within the Bitcoin community. There are those who want the network to remain unchanged and those who would like to add more features to Bitcoin, expanding the network's capabilities. Cobra is confident that these disagreements could negatively affect the ecosystem of the first cryptocurrency.   – American entrepreneur and investor Chris Dixon criticised the tightening measures taken by regulators regarding cryptocurrencies. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is increasingly suing crypto companies, claiming they are trading unregistered securities. This has caused Dixon great concern. "The US has an absurd cryptocurrency regulation regime. [...] Major industry companies developing blockchain-based solutions face constant pressure. Existing rules encourage platforms to host only memecoins, which can be freely traded on markets without any restrictions, rather than other more useful crypto assets," stated Dixon. Further in his forecasts, the administrator of Bitcoin.org under the nickname Cobra believes that the US authorities are preparing to introduce a complete ban on self-custody of cryptocurrency. This means that citizens of the country will have to involve intermediaries who will store their digital assets. "If you think the government won't come for your bitcoins, you just haven't paid attention to this," Cobra scares readers on the pages of social network X.   – The Federal Court of Seattle (USA) has delivered a verdict in the case of the co-founder and former CEO of the largest crypto exchange, Binance, Changpeng Zhao. It is noted that the businessman was accused of crimes related to money transfers without a license. While the prosecution had requested three years of imprisonment, the defense suggested settling for five months of probation. Representatives of the Justice Department insisted that probation for CZ was inappropriate as "such a decision could encourage others to break the law on the largest possible scale." The defence argued the absence of evidence that the defendant was informed of the illegal activities on the exchange. As a result, one of the wealthiest people in the crypto industry got away with four months of imprisonment. Addressing his final words, Changpeng Zhao acknowledged that he had failed to properly establish a suitable client verification system at Binance and to counteract money laundering during his tenure. Recall that in November 2023, Zhao reached a settlement with the US government to end a years-long investigation against Binance. As part of the agreement, he stepped down as CEO and agreed to pay a fine of $50 million. However, as we see, the US authorities found this insufficient, and now, in addition to dismissal and a fine, a prison term has been added. Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.   #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market   https://nordfx.com/
    • Почему цена биткоина столь волатильна и наступит ли стабильность?   Биткоин по-прежнему поражает своими непредсказуемыми изменениями цены. В момент своего создания его стоимость равнялась нескольким центам, а в марте этого года он достиг рекордного максимума на отметке почти $74 000. Этот долгий путь был отмечен крайней волатильностью, а иногда его колебания превышали 80%. Понимание нестабильной природы биткоина имеет решающее значение для успеха инвесторов и аналитиков, поскольку помогает составить представление о будущем криптовалют. Волатильность биткоина обусловлена множеством факторов, которые заключаются в характеристиках очень молодой цифровой валюты. В отличие от традиционных активов, имеющих многовековую историю, биткоин и рынок криптовалют в целом не имеют устоявшейся динамики рынка. В настоящее время из-за манипуляций его стоимость регулярно переоценивается рынком, что приводит к большим колебаниям цен в ответ на новую информацию и события. Одним из фундаментальных факторов, влияющих на волатильность BTC, является лимитированность его предложения в 21 миллион монет. Усиливающийся дефицит монет усиливает колебания цен, особенно на фоне растущего спроса со стороны розничных и институциональных инвесторов. Кроме того, влияние крупных инвесторов, которых обычно называют криптокитами, ещё больше усугубляет волатильность цен. Их значительные активы позволяют им влиять на динамику рынка с помощью крупных ордеров на покупку или продажу, что также приводит к резким изменениям цен. И здесь следует упомянуть относительную незрелость инфраструктуры рынка криптовалют и проблемы с ликвидностью, поэтому любые крупные сделки, безусловно, влияют на рыночные цены. Недостаток ликвидности может усилить колебания цен, поскольку инвесторы маневрируют, открывая позиции и выходя из них. Считалось, что появление деривативов, связанных с биткоином в виде спотовых ETF, и развитие рыночной инфраструктуры могут сделать торговый процесс более стабильным. Пока же мы наблюдаем резкие скачки из-за крупных притоков и оттоков средств. Источник - https://ru.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/article-2410618
    • April Results: A British Pound Trade Nets NordFX Client Over $25,000 in Profit     Brokerage firm NordFX has summarized the trading performance of its clients for April 2024. The efficacy of social trading services, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the earnings of the company’s IB-partners were also evaluated.   - This month’s highest profit was earned by a client from South Asia, account number 1765XXX, who made $26,757 from trading the GBP/USD pair. - The second place in the TOP-3 was taken by their compatriot, account number 1751XXX, with earnings of $16,976 from gold trades (XAU/USD). - The third step of the April podium was claimed by a trader from East Asia, account number 1609XXX, who traded not physical but digital “gold”: bitcoin. It was the BTC/USD pair transactions that enabled them to profit by $14,301.   The passive investment services at NordFX showed the following trends:   - In the PAMM service, we continue to monitor the account named Kikos2. Opened on November 18 last year, now after 162 days of operation, it shows a fantastic profit of 1161%. While this result is impressive, the aggressive trading strategy has also led to a substantial drawdown of 58%. Unrelenting statistics demonstrate that even more conservative trading can lead to a complete loss of funds. Therefore, investors must always exercise utmost caution and only risk the money whose loss will not disrupt their normal life. We will continue to monitor and see what happens with this account in May.    - In CopyTrading, we have previously highlighted the signal yahmat-forex, which has shown a return of 415% over 312 days with a maximum drawdown of 37%. Another interesting signal called NordFXSrilanka has made a profit of 39% in 113 days, specifically since January 6, 2024. While not as impressive as yahmat-forex, its notable advantage is a very small drawdown: just about 9%.   Among the IB-partners of NordFX, the TOP-3 are as follows: - The largest commission reward of $22,732 was credited to a partner from Western Asia, account number 1645XXX. - The next is a partner from South Asia, account number 1682XXX, who received $5,224. - Finally, rounding out the top three is their compatriot, account number 1565XXX, who was rewarded with $3,614.   ***   As we conclude this month, it is important to note that NordFX clients now have yet another excellent opportunity to enhance their financial portfolio. In the 2024 super lottery, 202+4 cash prizes totaling $100,000 will be awarded. Participating in the lottery and securing a chance to win one or even several of these prizes is quite simple. For more details, visit the NordFX website. Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.   #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market   https://nordfx.com/
    • Со временем которое осталось, да скорее все так и может быть, но лучше будет постараться дойти до 6-го уровня, то есть довести дело до конца, а после и расслабиться. Хотя даже так увы нет никаких гарантий, что это может нам что-то принести, но будем надеяться, что 6 лвл будет иметь весомое значение при раздаче.
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