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duncun007

Bearish or bullish? bitcoin analysis

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Hello everyone, we have all seen the surge in bitcoin price during these days, but is it time to buy or is it time to sell and stay away from the market? 

 

As we all know , since covid19 hit all markets back in march all markets were recovering slowly, we saw bitcoin price drop sharply from 10300$ to around 3800$ in a matter of days, and back then most people were calling for a bubble burst and bitcoin dying for good, but as we all know bitcoin always recovers.

Chart Analysis

screencapture-tradingview-chart-KYVgHFuE-2020-11-07-22_39_43.thumb.jpg.09d915db91c4db9ba44dcad29a404383.jpg

In the chart you see the resistances and supports that i have been using for a while now, and after Corona everyone was buying that big dip in price because of the upcoming halving, even though there was a lot of price manipulation back in march but pretty much it was the perfect entry for a long term hodl. Personally I have sold most of my bitcoin above 15800$ the other day because the RSI (relative strength index) was very high to me and this usually ends with bitcoin price dropping sharply. which could be those usual 2000$ candles,

BEARISH SCENARIO

screencapture-tradingview-chart-KYVgHFuE-2020-11-07-23_04_03.thumb.jpg.77bc8f6ceaf178d9883fe897bddc93e8.jpg

in this scenario I believe we will see the price going down to look for support around 13800-14000$, because we havent seen a big correction during this whole leg up to 16k, and if 13800$ doesnt hold then we will go deeper down to 13200$, and im actually more inclined to the bearish scenario because I dont see yet that big momentum we need to push above 20k yet, plus the paypal news even though its huge but it doesnt allow you to withdrawal your bitcoin out or send bitcoin in, they just allow you to trade, and finally the second wave of covid already causing schools and businesses to close down again and also making the markets go down.

BULLISH SCENARIO

even tho I think its unlikely but if we managed to hold the 14000$ support and had a quick rebound to 15k then there might be a chance this current dump from 15900$ to 14300$ (as of writing this topic) might be a bear trap so weak hands sell their bitcoins, and then bulls will drive the price up to 18k and with enough gas we might push to give 20k another try.

FEAR AND GREED

307127537_MySnapshot6.jpg.46dfdcced8e9b5c7f38a329894278e8b.jpg

The fear and greed index has always been used to know the sentiment in the market and as we see it shows that there is an extreme greed in the market these days and this always result in the price taking a big hit, as we all know we buy when there is fear in the market and we sell when there is high greed. 

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For me it's neither buy nor sell now - it's hold. In about 2-3 months I think selling would be great choice. For the next 3 months I see it going up but after that it's gonna crash hard to levels below $10K. So expressing mood I can say I'm bullish for short to middle term and bearish for long term.

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Great exhibition my friend! The price of Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency is mainly subject to supply and demand. Apart from that, there are other external factors that influence the fact of manipulation by the so-called "Whales". On the other hand, news such as the adoption of PayPal and the waiting for the results of the elections in the US also influence the behavior of rising prices in this market. In many of the points that you expose I agree with you. Let's hope that after a few weeks this price will remain or even exceed expectations as it would be a great help for the forum if our earnings multiply when obtaining the expected results.

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Always act with conscience and a sense of camaraderie and every time you make a post, stop for a moment and review in detail the posts of other members around you, so that you can give your respective reaction. :classic_wink:

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16 hours ago, Altcoinfan said:

For me it's neither buy nor sell now - it's hold. In about 2-3 months I think selling would be great choice. For the next 3 months I see it going up but after that it's gonna crash hard to levels below $10K. So expressing mood I can say I'm bullish for short to middle term and bearish for long term.

i think 10k might be too deep of a target actually, in the mean time we see bitcoin has recovered after that sudden fall yesterday to 14300$ and now its over 15200$, it seems like the bulls want to push it higher still.

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@duncun007to my own opinion or targeted point I will prefer to put a target at 14500$ as the market is full of volatility. Just exactly as it happened from 14300$ to 15500$ in just some few hours the RSI indicator can help to target the market.

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Bitcoin is a valuable coin.  Bitcoin prices fell sharply in March due to Covid 19.  Many people are scared because of the falling price but this fear did not last long. In a few days the price of Bitcoin reached 14 and its price is constantly rising.

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For now there a small fomo in the market on bitcoin and the price is rising day by day , so we can say its bullish for now but lets hope that the fear wont happen in the market because the price will definitely dump.

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Thanks for sharing this topic sir. I think it is a big help for us who are only starting in the crypto field of trading, we can know ho to analyze the movement of bitcoin or any other coins. As we all know now bitcoin price is kind of high now and many people got a good profit.

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20 hours ago, Babubu609 said:

@duncun007to my own opinion or targeted point I will prefer to put a target at 14500$ as the market is full of volatility. Just exactly as it happened from 14300$ to 15500$ in just some few hours the RSI indicator can help to target the market.

RSI is  a good indicator indeed but trust me when the selling pressure hits the market no indicator will be showing you how deep this dump will go, but the resistance and support areas will always show you where the dump might end.

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The volatility in bitcoin's price is its nature! so seeing bearish and bullish trends each period is normal in my opinion.. bitcoin is in a great situation these days and all of us know that! but by the same time it should rise more than this to say that it would reach new high prices again.. and i don't think that it would happen in the near future! because there are huge supplies and demands in some levels and they are waiting bitcoin to reach their prices to make it go down again..

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15 hours ago, MuhammadSh said:

and i don't think that it would happen in the near future! because there are huge supplies and demands in some levels and they are waiting bitcoin to reach their prices to make it go down again..

yeah exactly, and this is why I'm bearish on bitcoin in short term, because people tend to forget that since march we have gone up 300% and i think we will need to see a big healthy retracement.

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21 hours ago, duncun007 said:

the resistance and support areas will always show you where the dump might end

Yea you are right I experience such challenges while using the indicator  sometimes it does not show the reality about the dump market. All the way you share a good option to focuse on which is the resistance and support.

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7 hours ago, duncun007 said:

yeah exactly, and this is why I'm bearish on bitcoin in short term, because people tend to forget that since march we have gone up 300% and i think we will need to see a big healthy retracement.

Completely right! there are many predicts say that bitcoin would go down even these days or after a while! but it really needs to a healthy retracement as you said for sure.. and maybe it would reach low prices in the near future and that's what most of people don't keep in mind unfortunately especially those who buy bitcoin these days in high prices because they think that bitcoin will reach higher prices and they will earn good profits in a few days! 

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Bitcoin has been making some higher lows in the last few days, I can see little bit of profit taking and fear of missing out in the market; any break out might see up chase up to $17,000 over little below. For now, I don't have any serious gameplan with bitcoin, just studying the behaviour for now.

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14 hours ago, MuhammadSh said:

Completely right! there are many predicts say that bitcoin would go down even these days or after a while! but it really needs to a healthy retracement as you said for sure.. and maybe it would reach low prices in the near future and that's what most of people don't keep in mind unfortunately especially those who buy bitcoin these days in high prices because they think that bitcoin will reach higher prices and they will earn good profits in a few days! 

those who buy the top will be left hanging and in loss, people should have learned so by now because there were many people who bought bitcoin at 19k and 18k and look how long it took us to reach even close to these prices again.

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2 hours ago, duncun007 said:

those who buy the top will be left hanging and in loss, people should have learned so by now because there were many people who bought bitcoin at 19k and 18k and look how long it took us to reach even close to these prices again.

They don't expect that the price will go down "under of their buying prices" and that's really bad.. expecting only good things in this crypto world isn't really a good idea because there are always unexpected senarios! those who buy in high prices have two choices to do , waiting the price for going up again" and this may take many months" or sell their cryptocurrencies in low prices and lose a part of their capital.. and both of them is bad for sure!

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On 11/11/2020 at 10:57 AM, MuhammadSh said:

They don't expect that the price will go down "under of their buying prices" and that's really bad.. expecting only good things in this crypto world isn't really a good idea because there are always unexpected senarios! those who buy in high prices have two choices to do , waiting the price for going up again" and this may take many months" or sell their cryptocurrencies in low prices and lose a part of their capital.. and both of them is bad for sure!

i think people always miss on the fact that when you buy bitcoin at 20k and it goes down 20% which is down to 16k, you would have to wait for bitcoin to go up 25% to break even, thats why i dont like to play with bitcoin when its up so high.

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Thanks for that great information about bitcoin analysis. Bitcoin also experienced ups and downs on prices, we just need to buy bitcoin at the right time and sell when the price is high to gain profits. 

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Although the trend is highly bullish but extreme greed index is something to worry about because in a market in which passion and excitement overcome wisdom and logic, there is a chance of sudden crash. In this situation, if you have bought anything cheap, holding is safe but joining in the middle of storm can lead to unpleasant consequences. High greed means most traders act without considering all the aspects. When the greed index goes lower, the market will calm down and investing could be safer.

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At the time when this topic was shared several months ago, we were seeing this wonderful rise, but Bitcoin proved great strength and influence in the cryptocurrency and central currency market when it approached touching $ 20,000 in less than a month, at a speed that was not expected so that we would stop analyzing and buy in preparation for the upward journey.

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On 11/23/2020 at 1:28 PM, Brushless4500KV said:

Although the trend is highly bullish but extreme greed index is something to worry about because in a market in which passion and excitement overcome wisdom and logic, there is a chance of sudden crash. In this situation, if you have bought anything cheap, holding is safe but joining in the middle of storm can lead to unpleasant consequences. High greed means most traders act without considering all the aspects. When the greed index goes lower, the market will calm down and investing could be safer.

When bitcoin jumped over 19000$ i saw the greed index go to 96% which was the highest ever recorded greed in the market, all that was a reason for me to not hold bitcoin and rather just wait for it to come down to my orders around 16k as first target, and 12k as the deepest target.

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Data show traders neither bullish nor bearish over sub-$15.5K Bitcoin price. On-chain and crypto exchange data shows pro traders feel less confident about Bitcoin's bullish momentum under the $15,500 level. ... On the other hand, there are plenty of traders who are confident that the current bull

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3 hours ago, duncun007 said:

When bitcoin jumped over 19000$ i saw the greed index go to 96% which was the highest ever recorded greed in the market, all that was a reason for me to not hold bitcoin and rather just wait for it to come down to my orders around 16k as first target, and 12k as the deepest target.

It is because some people who still hadn't bought bitcoin, were anxious to join the market to not lose the opportunity anymore. Being hesitant about when to start a trade will lead to greed and regret. If prices have risen and someone has not started yet, it is better to forget about starting and wait to buy cheaper because there is a big risk of losing due to a sudden collapse. Today, bitcoin fell to $16.500 from $19.200 and this is the consequence of high greed index.

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I will prefer to comment more about the recent bull and bear bitcoin market that makes traders to be confused to either buy or sell. I like the bull market and likely bitcoin will not fall beyond $16600 which could be a good support, falling beyond it can result to bear market, and this is not what we want. If bitcoin can break the $17500 resistance, expecting it at $19000 after will be possible. 

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On 11/9/2020 at 2:33 PM, iloveyobit said:

For now there a small fomo in the market on bitcoin and the price is rising day by day , so we can say its bullish for now but lets hope that the fear wont happen in the market because the price will definitely dump.

Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency so the price of this coin is always volatile.  The price of Bitcoin depends on supply and demand.  The price of bitcoin is halving during the Corona epidemic and then many people sell bitcoin.  Users feared that Bitcoin might be dead, but Bitcoin was recovered.  And currently the price of Bitcoin is 40K.  Bitcoin has pumped a lot.  So we will not lose confidence in Bitcoin

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