Dissecting Bitcoin’s Death Crosses from the past: BTC could mirror 2015 setup

[Djlakhany 0]

With Bitcoin hovering around the $7,200 level, it should be noted that its journey thus far has transitioned from being cautiously optimistic to a roller-coaster ride. The future, however, looks to be stuck in limbo until Bitcoin makes its next move.

Bitcoin’s Current State

In terms of network, Bitcoin’s hash rate aka the lifeline has come down from its ATH to 93.5 million TH/s; the network is secure as ever. The number of unique addresses as of 26 November 2019 was 380,403, a 64.53% reduction from its ATH during the peak of the 2017 bull run.


Source: BTC/USD TradingView

In terms of price, BTC has slowed down since its volatility is moving sideways. Multiple indicators are not exhibiting any dichotomy for Bitcoin, or any clear bias. On one hand, the price is consolidating in a falling wedge pattern, indicating a bullish bias. On the other hand, the simple moving averages [SMA] are indicating huge bearish bias.

Will bulls overcome the bearish sentiment and triumph?

Will the bears knock the bulls down to the ground?

Dissecting one of these scenarios will help opine on what to expect for Bitcoin.

The Looming Death Cross

The bearish scenario that is looming over Bitcoin is the ‘Death Cross.’ Death Cross is when the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200-day SMA. Infamously, this indicator lit up before major economic downturns in 1929, 1938, 1974, and 2008. It is also important to note that there were times when the death cross appeared, but proved to be a false indicator.

With the data available for Bitcoin dating back to January 2012, this indicator has flashed six times and it is clearly depicted in the chart above.

So, what’s so special about this?

The first major bull run in 2013 pushed the price of Bitcoin to the $1,100 territory, following which there was a bust cycle. During the bust cycle, the death cross was formed on 9 April 2014. The bulls tried to take BTC back from the bears, but failed. This caused an ephemeral golden cross, followed by another death cross, which was the nail in the bulls’ coffin. This bear cycle lasted for more than 300 days, following which another golden cross was seen. Like the fate of the previous golden cross, this one failed as well, and was immediately followed by another death cross.

The bulls finally snatched BTC from the bears, forming another golden cross in early 2016, a development that led to another euphoric bull run which pushed the price exponentially. This was the 2017 bull run. The 2018 bear cycle was brutal, if not more excruciating, than the 2014/2015 bear cycle.

Death Cross Autopsies


Source: BraveNewCoin Liquid Index TradingView

Although the death cross is supposedly a bearish indicator, from the above data, it can be inferred that the returns are rather mixed and do not represent a common deviation.

30 days into the first death cross, BTC prices witnessed a major downturn of -47.89%. The price recovered over the next couple of weeks, but failed to show any positive return. Interestingly, over 14 and 30 days into the 2018 death cross, BTC’s price surged by 11.32% and 32.67%, respectively. The price finally conformed to the death cross’ bearish bias and yielded a return of -17.36%. Eventually, 180 days into the death cross, BTC showed negative returns.

Speaking to AMBCrypto, Scott Melker, a trader at Texas West Capital and a DJ, opined on the Death Cross, stating,

“I don’t give much consideration to golden and death crosses. I find them to be lagging indicators, especially on higher time frames – a result of past price action, not a predictor of what price will do in the future.”

With respect to the current death cross, formed on 25 October, the price has surged by 18.5% over 14 days, and dropped by -7% over the last 30 days. Although the price has collapsed by a huge amount in the last few days, more data is required to suggest the next course of action. Looking at the technicals, the bounce is just a pitstop for the bears.

End Result: Bitcoin’s Bearish Case

True as Scott Melker may be, moving averages are usually lagging indicators and do not give a real-time reflection of the price. The death cross has been a differentiating factor that, in a vague sense, separates bull cycles from bear cycles. For example, the April 2014 death cross lasted for 560+ days, indicating a long-lasting bust cycle.

The 2018 death cross was also followed by a bear cycle that lasted 388 days, until the golden cross appeared on 23 April 2019. Since April 2019, the supposed bull run was in full force for 185 days; after which, a death cross manifested itself and has been looming over Bitcoin for more than 20 days.

The bearish case for Bitcoin could prove that April 2019’s golden cross was a fake-out, one very similar to the July 2015 golden cross. The 2015 ‘fake golden cross’ was proceeded by a death cross, which pushed Bitcoin close to its previous bottom.

As mentioned above, the bearish case for Bitcoin seems likely and Bitcoin could mirror a similar move from the past, more precisely, the move could be from 2015.

If that were to be the case, are you prepared to stack more sats?

Source of article: https://eng.ambcrypto.com/dissecting-bitcoins-death-crosses-from-the-past-btc-could-mirror-2015-setup/

[TimopheyKa 3900]

Yes, it's pretty good and scary! After all, the reasons for all this on the one hand and are not even known, and if they are clear then it's all quite scary. Strange this movement, confused me very!

[Thekingcallme 1975]

It will not be easy and bitcoin will not go the way everyone wants
It is highly volatile and must take advantage of these fluctuations
To be so, you have to be good at analyzing

[Crypto123 0]

What a long and complicated article, you need experts to understand its content, in short Bitcoin fell significantly due to a number of factors that affected it, and I believe this decline will not last long and it is expected that it will return to rise after the next halving.

[Afrizal rahman 2636]

Very difficult to do that. Very strange and scary movements. I think that Bitcoin is fluctuating, up and down it's very difficult if you do that.

[Sumayya 493]

It will be difficult to do that, patience takes us to the next level, it is very scary but their are advantages of it too

[gonivigcv 0]

Asicworlds.com is a good site. Ordered there, delivered quickly.

[bliznec 22268]

The looming death cross of bitcoin is most likely the opposite. Many traders today see an uptrend and an increase in the price of bitcoin. And all because of what? Everyone wants to buy Bitcoin before Halving in 2020. 

[BTC Future 3946]

Pretty scary considering that even though we hit 9k once again, it looks like we've met huge resistance and the rise was probably a fake out on the weekly candle. It looks that we are re-entering the previous descending channel and probably the death cross between the 50 SMA and the 200 EMA will resurface.

[Rickso 768]

On 11/27/2019 at 5:03 PM, Djlakhany said:

 

With Bitcoin hovering around the $7,200 level, it should be noted that its journey thus far has transitioned from being cautiously optimistic to a roller-coaster ride. The future, however, looks to be stuck in limbo until Bitcoin makes its next move.

Bitcoin’s Current State

In terms of network, Bitcoin’s hash rate aka the lifeline has come down from its ATH to 93.5 million TH/s; the network is secure as ever. The number of unique addresses as of 26 November 2019 was 380,403, a 64.53% reduction from its ATH during the peak of the 2017 bull run.


Source: BTC/USD TradingView

In terms of price, BTC has slowed down since its volatility is moving sideways. Multiple indicators are not exhibiting any dichotomy for Bitcoin, or any clear bias. On one hand, the price is consolidating in a falling wedge pattern, indicating a bullish bias. On the other hand, the simple moving averages [SMA] are indicating huge bearish bias.

Will bulls overcome the bearish sentiment and triumph?

Will the bears knock the bulls down to the ground?

Dissecting one of these scenarios will help opine on what to expect for Bitcoin.

The Looming Death Cross

The bearish scenario that is looming over Bitcoin is the ‘Death Cross.’ Death Cross is when the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200-day SMA. Infamously, this indicator lit up before major economic downturns in 1929, 1938, 1974, and 2008. It is also important to note that there were times when the death cross appeared, but proved to be a false indicator.

With the data available for Bitcoin dating back to January 2012, this indicator has flashed six times and it is clearly depicted in the chart above.

So, what’s so special about this?

The first major bull run in 2013 pushed the price of Bitcoin to the $1,100 territory, following which there was a bust cycle. During the bust cycle, the death cross was formed on 9 April 2014. The bulls tried to take BTC back from the bears, but failed. This caused an ephemeral golden cross, followed by another death cross, which was the nail in the bulls’ coffin. This bear cycle lasted for more than 300 days, following which another golden cross was seen. Like the fate of the previous golden cross, this one failed as well, and was immediately followed by another death cross.

The bulls finally snatched BTC from the bears, forming another golden cross in early 2016, a development that led to another euphoric bull run which pushed the price exponentially. This was the 2017 bull run. The 2018 bear cycle was brutal, if not more excruciating, than the 2014/2015 bear cycle.

Death Cross Autopsies


Source: BraveNewCoin Liquid Index TradingView

Although the death cross is supposedly a bearish indicator, from the above data, it can be inferred that the returns are rather mixed and do not represent a common deviation.

30 days into the first death cross, BTC prices witnessed a major downturn of -47.89%. The price recovered over the next couple of weeks, but failed to show any positive return. Interestingly, over 14 and 30 days into the 2018 death cross, BTC’s price surged by 11.32% and 32.67%, respectively. The price finally conformed to the death cross’ bearish bias and yielded a return of -17.36%. Eventually, 180 days into the death cross, BTC showed negative returns.

Speaking to AMBCrypto, Scott Melker, a trader at Texas West Capital and a DJ, opined on the Death Cross, stating,

“I don’t give much consideration to golden and death crosses. I find them to be lagging indicators, especially on higher time frames – a result of past price action, not a predictor of what price will do in the future.”

With respect to the current death cross, formed on 25 October, the price has surged by 18.5% over 14 days, and dropped by -7% over the last 30 days. Although the price has collapsed by a huge amount in the last few days, more data is required to suggest the next course of action. Looking at the technicals, the bounce is just a pitstop for the bears.

End Result: Bitcoin’s Bearish Case

True as Scott Melker may be, moving averages are usually lagging indicators and do not give a real-time reflection of the price. The death cross has been a differentiating factor that, in a vague sense, separates bull cycles from bear cycles. For example, the April 2014 death cross lasted for 560+ days, indicating a long-lasting bust cycle.

The 2018 death cross was also followed by a bear cycle that lasted 388 days, until the golden cross appeared on 23 April 2019. Since April 2019, the supposed bull run was in full force for 185 days; after which, a death cross manifested itself and has been looming over Bitcoin for more than 20 days.

The bearish case for Bitcoin could prove that April 2019’s golden cross was a fake-out, one very similar to the July 2015 golden cross. The 2015 ‘fake golden cross’ was proceeded by a death cross, which pushed Bitcoin close to its previous bottom.

As mentioned above, the bearish case for Bitcoin seems likely and Bitcoin could mirror a similar move from the past, more precisely, the move could be from 2015.

If that were to be the case, are you prepared to stack more sats?

Source of article: https://eng.ambcrypto.com/dissecting-bitcoins-death-crosses-from-the-past-btc-could-mirror-2015-setup/

 

very good analysis with a lot of info, thank you for letting know about this pattern. 

i hope this will repeat on this year so we can make some easy profit on bitcoin. 

we can also see that bitcoin are following same pattern over those years, they are just a few and maybe are just coincidences, we'll see

[bentayebsalah 2280]

After this severe bleeding suffered by bitcoin, I think he succeeded in overcoming this while he is in the trivial stage, and the price of bitcoin will increase significantly during the year 2020.

[Dmasked 1840]

whether bullish or bearish, bitcoin's future is truly unpredictable but from what it seems the bullish run of bitcoin seems to continue. The price of bitcoin had fell in the past but such fluctuations are healthy for the traders if the price rises normally again.

[Amirul Islam 382]

On 11/27/2019 at 10:03 PM, Djlakhany said:

 

With Bitcoin hovering around the $7,200 level, it should be noted that its journey thus far has transitioned from being cautiously optimistic to a roller-coaster ride. The future, however, looks to be stuck in limbo until Bitcoin makes its next move.

Bitcoin’s Current State

In terms of network, Bitcoin’s hash rate aka the lifeline has come down from its ATH to 93.5 million TH/s; the network is secure as ever. The number of unique addresses as of 26 November 2019 was 380,403, a 64.53% reduction from its ATH during the peak of the 2017 bull run.


Source: BTC/USD TradingView

In terms of price, BTC has slowed down since its volatility is moving sideways. Multiple indicators are not exhibiting any dichotomy for Bitcoin, or any clear bias. On one hand, the price is consolidating in a falling wedge pattern, indicating a bullish bias. On the other hand, the simple moving averages [SMA] are indicating huge bearish bias.

Will bulls overcome the bearish sentiment and triumph?

Will the bears knock the bulls down to the ground?

Dissecting one of these scenarios will help opine on what to expect for Bitcoin.

The Looming Death Cross

The bearish scenario that is looming over Bitcoin is the ‘Death Cross.’ Death Cross is when the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200-day SMA. Infamously, this indicator lit up before major economic downturns in 1929, 1938, 1974, and 2008. It is also important to note that there were times when the death cross appeared, but proved to be a false indicator.

With the data available for Bitcoin dating back to January 2012, this indicator has flashed six times and it is clearly depicted in the chart above.

So, what’s so special about this?

The first major bull run in 2013 pushed the price of Bitcoin to the $1,100 territory, following which there was a bust cycle. During the bust cycle, the death cross was formed on 9 April 2014. The bulls tried to take BTC back from the bears, but failed. This caused an ephemeral golden cross, followed by another death cross, which was the nail in the bulls’ coffin. This bear cycle lasted for more than 300 days, following which another golden cross was seen. Like the fate of the previous golden cross, this one failed as well, and was immediately followed by another death cross.

The bulls finally snatched BTC from the bears, forming another golden cross in early 2016, a development that led to another euphoric bull run which pushed the price exponentially. This was the 2017 bull run. The 2018 bear cycle was brutal, if not more excruciating, than the 2014/2015 bear cycle.

Death Cross Autopsies


Source: BraveNewCoin Liquid Index TradingView

Although the death cross is supposedly a bearish indicator, from the above data, it can be inferred that the returns are rather mixed and do not represent a common deviation.

30 days into the first death cross, BTC prices witnessed a major downturn of -47.89%. The price recovered over the next couple of weeks, but failed to show any positive return. Interestingly, over 14 and 30 days into the 2018 death cross, BTC’s price surged by 11.32% and 32.67%, respectively. The price finally conformed to the death cross’ bearish bias and yielded a return of -17.36%. Eventually, 180 days into the death cross, BTC showed negative returns.

Speaking to AMBCrypto, Scott Melker, a trader at Texas West Capital and a DJ, opined on the Death Cross, stating,

“I don’t give much consideration to golden and death crosses. I find them to be lagging indicators, especially on higher time frames – a result of past price action, not a predictor of what price will do in the future.”

With respect to the current death cross, formed on 25 October, the price has surged by 18.5% over 14 days, and dropped by -7% over the last 30 days. Although the price has collapsed by a huge amount in the last few days, more data is required to suggest the next course of action. Looking at the technicals, the bounce is just a pitstop for the bears.

End Result: Bitcoin’s Bearish Case

True as Scott Melker may be, moving averages are usually lagging indicators and do not give a real-time reflection of the price. The death cross has been a differentiating factor that, in a vague sense, separates bull cycles from bear cycles. For example, the April 2014 death cross lasted for 560+ days, indicating a long-lasting bust cycle.

The 2018 death cross was also followed by a bear cycle that lasted 388 days, until the golden cross appeared on 23 April 2019. Since April 2019, the supposed bull run was in full force for 185 days; after which, a death cross manifested itself and has been looming over Bitcoin for more than 20 days.

The bearish case for Bitcoin could prove that April 2019’s golden cross was a fake-out, one very similar to the July 2015 golden cross. The 2015 ‘fake golden cross’ was proceeded by a death cross, which pushed Bitcoin close to its previous bottom.

As mentioned above, the bearish case for Bitcoin seems likely and Bitcoin could mirror a similar move from the past, more precisely, the move could be from 2015.

If that were to be the case, are you prepared to stack more sats?

Source of article: https://eng.ambcrypto.com/dissecting-bitcoins-death-crosses-from-the-past-btc-could-mirror-2015-setup/

 

I think this post is more knowledgable. Many people of this forum don't know about bitcoin history. It can help them. After read the post people can write some constructive posts on this forum.

[Captain Karim 0]

With the price of bitcoin falling from 2017 until now, we find more investors pumping money in bitcoin and possessing new addresses and portfolios, perhaps the situation will change soon and the role of bulls in the market begins.

[tienda 8776]

I think is not a good idea because will be very difficult to do that, the situation of Bitcoin in the market is not the ideal because of volatility price going up and down constantly, so will be very strange movement.

[Rezort 846]

On 15.04.2020 at 13:52, tienda said:

I think is not a good idea because will be very difficult to do that, the situation of Bitcoin in the market is not the ideal because of volatility price going up and down constantly, so will be very strange movement.

Well, maybe it is not really possible right now you can can't say that there wouldn't be some good time in the next years or just nearest future when it can happen.

[Red-Jones 1150]

I like how bitcoin constantly surprises people, when people think that the price will fall a lot, the next day the price increases a lot. current price is above $9000 ($9300) and is heading towards only $ 10,000

[Alex9876r 1408]

The rise and fall is a feature of the market and one of the characteristics of Bitcoin in general, as it has sudden and lawful movements and has a short period of time, and this matter requires patience to achieve the benefits from it