Cryptocurrency Market Analysis

[Whited35 15285]

In this article, I am going to perform a cryptocurrency market analysis for top-ranked cryptocurrencies by using so many analytical tools and already available data. Also, you might find some direction to determine the upcoming crypto market behaviors, and maybe it helps to find good investment opportunities. Individual technical analysis for all cryptocurrencies will not possible in this single topic so especially for BTC/USD, I am going to perform technical analysis with a forecast. So many guys are facing difficulties to understand how technical analysis is performed. If you are still a novice in Technical Analysis, I expect you guys to read this topic.
I have really tried my best to make the language as simple as possible but if you are still facing difficulties to understand something in this topic, you might ask me questions in a comment. So let's get started, read slowly by observing all the chart, I think you say aH-Ha at the end. 

 

Market Overview
When Bitcoin was created for the first time with blockchain technology, over time it has inspired so many altcoins to come into this existence. Bitcoin blockchain size is rapidly increasing and the current Bitcoin blockchain size is reported to be 302.22GB. It indicates how Bitcoin is gaining a reputation from the community. You can have a look at the increasing size of the Bitcoin blockchain since its creation in the following chart. The higher the Bitcoin blockchain size, the higher is the use cases of Bitcoin in this world.

 

I have created this chart based on the Bitcoin blockchain size 2010-2020 published by Shanhong Liu

 

Just like the Bitcoin blockchain, the size of other blockchains is also rapidly increasing.

We have seen strong growth in the global cryptocurrency markets especially during 2014-2019. If we check the historical data, 2018 was the special year for the global cryptocurrency market as the total market cap reached approx. $440.762B. In 2020, Crypto Market faced so many obstacles and up-down. The notable factor to cause a massive price drop of most the cryptocurrencies in 2020 was the COVID-19 outbreak. Due to the pandemic, Bitcoin's price was seen under the $5000 mark. Despite the COVID-19 outbreak to compromise the usage of blockchain solutions in the cryptocurrency markets, total spending amounts in cryptocurrency will still remain at a higher mark than the previous year. Like in previous years, again Binance, Coinbase Pro, Kraken, and Bitfinex were the key crypto exchange in 2020.

Global Crypto Adoption Index
According to blockchain analysis company Chainalysis, the crypto adoption rate is increasing all over the world. The company has proposed the Global Crypto Adoption Index(GCAI) by considering the parameters and metrics like cryptocurrency adoption rates all around the world, cryptocurrency usage patterns, and crypto spread towards the different wallets. 
GCAI exhibits the number between 0-1 and Ukraine is the leading country with a score of 1. Chainalysis has involved 154 countries to show their individual GCAI score. The increasing global cryptocurrency adoption rate is a good sign of more cryptocurrency trading opportunities. So I involved this Index in this article for consideration. 

Source:-Chainalysis

Total Market Cap of cryptocurrency 
The current Total Marketcap is approx. $440.762B, Highest Marketcap was approx. $761.057B was reported on Jan 06, 2018.

 

Current Total Marketcap Excluding BTC $150.013B, Highest Marketcap was $502.527B on Jan 06, 2018.

 

Total Market Capitalization Dominance
Bitcoin is dominating all other cryptocurrencies in the case of total market cap and 24-hour trading volume. 

Source:-Tradingview

 

If we locate the current statistics, it is clearly seen more than 66.02% of the total market cap is occupied by Bitcoin in the cryptocurrency market. Ethereum, Tether(USDT), and Ripple(XRP) are at second, third, and fourth positions with 11.17%, 3.82%, and 2.61 % of the total market cap respectively.

I have designed this chart based on the real-time (11-6-2020) data provided by Tradingview

 

So these are the brief statical overviews of the cryptocurrency market based on history and already available data. This information also helps us to make further trading strategies.

 

Market analysis for BTC/USD 
If we locate the Jul-Nov 2020 chart for BTC/USD, it is clearly seen, the market has been experiencing ups and downs. The price of Bitcoin is following the less volatile market during Jul-Aug. In September, the chart exhibits a massive oversold or bearish market. The current price of Bitcoin at the time of writing is around $15,490.85 and it has followed the overbought market(Bullish) on Nov 05. You can see in the chart, overall, the market is following the bullish trend over the past few days. Today, it is seen, the market is following quite bearish and it can find support around $13520.22. Take a look at the following chart.

 

Some Analytical Tools

Moving average convergence/divergence (MACD)
MACD (blue) crossed to be above the signal line so traders may purchase Bitcoin. (Note:-If MACD is appeared to be below of Signal line then the trader may sell their BTC holding).
Caution:-MACD exhibits so many reversals that may not occur. Sometimes traders may get confused to predict the real price reversal.

 

Relative Strength Index (RSI)
RSI value is seen as 83.91 that is above 70, indicates market behavior is bullish.
Caution:-RSI is not always helpful to predict the right market momentum sometime it can exhibit false signals.

 

The moving average(MA)

As you can see in the following chart with three MA 5,8, and 13 close respectively, strong support for Bitcoin can be $13520.22.

 

The moving average (MA) Cross
Currently, MA is seen above the Smoothed Moving Average (SMMA), which indicates the market is following a bullish trend.

MA(50,200) Crossover
The golden cross(Bullish crossover) isn't currently seen in the chart. You can see MA 50-day is moving above MA 200-day that still helps us make trading strategy like the market is following bullish trend.

 

The on-balance volume (OBV)
The price of BTC is seen slightly falling so OBV is flat-lining. Know more about OBV here.

 

Crypto Fear and Greed Index 
This index shows the value between 0-100. The index helps to predict possible market behaviors for significant cryptocurrencies. If you observe Index value 0-50, indicates fear(Bearish or Oversold market). If you observe Index value 50-100, indicates greed (Bullish or Overbought). Check details in this topic.

 

 

So current CGFI value is 88, which means it indicates extreme greed i.e., the market is bullish and it can be an excellent time to sell your holdings. 

 

Conclusion:- Based on already available data, it is seen the usage of blockchain solutions is increasing day by day. The global adoption rate of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency is increasing (Circulating supply of Bitcoin and other important currencies are finding their way to the wallets of small investors) which is a good sign future of the cryptocurrency market. In the case of current Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency markets, the market is following a bullish trend.
 

Thank You!   

Edited November 8, 2020 by Whited35
Paragraphs were not properly arranged.

[Calvinpriva 17296]

1 hour ago, Whited35 said:

Conclusion:- Based on already available data, it is seen the usage of blockchain solutions is increasing day by day. The global adoption rate of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency is increasing (Circulating supply of Bitcoin and other important currencies are finding their way to the wallets of small investors) which is a good sign future of the cryptocurrency market. In the case of current Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency markets, the market is following a bullish trend.

Sure brother @Whited35 based on the current data, we see the usage of blockachain increasing everyday. Many people are now adopting the blockachain technology and this helps in increasing the circulation in the markets. Am not sure but i think Bitcoin is influencing some other coins to grow, and that is why when Bitcoin is bullish some currencies will follow.

[Whited35 15285]

2 hours ago, Calvinpriva said:

Am not sure but i think Bitcoin is influencing some other coins to grow, and that is why when Bitcoin is bullish some currencies will follow.

@CalvinprivaBitcoin inspires most of the altcoins to grow up in  the cryptocurrency markets brother  as it is crypto king 😉. I performed analysis just for BTC/USD so that readers can get ideas to apply it in the other cryptocurrency tradings. 

[Raqeebzy 6456]

4 hours ago, Whited35 said:

Conclusion:- Based on already available data, it is seen the usage of blockchain solutions is increasing day by day. The global adoption rate of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency is increasing (Circulating supply of Bitcoin and other important currencies are finding their way to the wallets of small investors) which is a good sign future of the cryptocurrency market. In the case of current Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency markets, the market is following a bullish trend.

Right. I mentioned it somewhere in a thread, blockchain technology is the main key to Cryptocurrency adoption. Apart from finance, there has been some interesting and vital application of the blockchain network such as in games and data management. All of these will play a big role in cryptocurrency adoption in general.

Good topic btw.

[Calvinpriva 17296]

41 minutes ago, Whited35 said:

@Calvinpriva Bitcoin inspires most of the altcoins to grow up in  the cryptocurrency markets brother  as it is crypto king 😉. I performed analysis just for BTC/USD so that readers can get ideas to apply it in the other cryptocurrency tradings. 

This is good @Whited35 I did analysis about LINK according to its graph and i compared it with BTC movements, i saw they pumped together several times which proves your words. I hope to see an increase in price to some altcoins if BTC will keep growing.

[Cleaner 2549]

@Whited35

14 hours ago, Whited35 said:

Based on already available data, it is seen the usage of blockchain solutions is increasing day by day. The global adoption rate of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency is increasing (Circulating supply of Bitcoin and other important currencies are finding their way to the wallets of small investors) which is a good sign future of the cryptocurrency market. In the case of current Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency markets, the market is following a bullish trend.

I agree with you Brother.. We can see that blockchain based databases are improving.  The blockchain is increasing its security day by day.  Bitcoin users are increasing day by day.  The world is now in an epidemic crisis.  In this crisis, when all the markets are going down, then Bitcoin is improving.  You are right that small investors have a good chance of making a profit.  Bitcoin will be at a good price towards the end of the year.  And there is good news for anyone who invests from now on 

[Whited35 15285]

17 hours ago, Raqeebzy said:

Right. I mentioned it somewhere in a thread, blockchain technology is the main key to Cryptocurrency adoption. Apart from finance, there has been some interesting and vital application of the blockchain network such as in games and data management.

Some country's security forces started to prefer blockchain technology for the data management purpose but they will have private blockchain network with the limited participating nodes and accessing data of blockchain will be limited to everyone. Financial sector has got another genuine concept i.e., DeFi. These all things are indicating the great future of the cryptocurrency markets. 

[Raqeebzy 6456]

26 minutes ago, Whited35 said:

Some country's security forces started to prefer blockchain technology for the data management purpose but they will have private blockchain network with the limited participating nodes and accessing data of blockchain will be limited to everyone. Financial sector has got another genuine concept i.e., DeFi. These all things are indicating the great future of the cryptocurrency markets. 

Yeah. Excellent point.

I will say it again, the greatest thing about cryptocurrency is the blockchain network. As application grows for it, adoption of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency also grows. And we can be positive of blockchain usage, especially in developed countries.

There'll be challenges for sure but we'll overcome. 😉

[duncun007 3577]

22 hours ago, Whited35 said:

@CalvinprivaBitcoin inspires most of the altcoins to grow up in  the cryptocurrency markets brother  as it is crypto king 😉. I performed analysis just for BTC/USD so that readers can get ideas to apply it in the other cryptocurrency tradings. 

i think the growing price of bitcoin is affecting the altcoin market negatively as we see most altcoins have now fell to almost all tight low, this is why in my analysis i said I'm more on the brearish side now because altcoins will die if bitcoin kept going up without corrections.

[Whited35 15285]

2 hours ago, duncun007 said:

i think the growing price of bitcoin is affecting the altcoin market negatively as we see most altcoins have now fell to almost all tight low, this is why in my analysis i said I'm more on the brearish side now because altcoins will die if bitcoin kept going up without corrections.

Oh no 😜! Check the market momentum my brother. Most of the atcoins' pairs are with BTC so price of pair strength does matter. You said price correction of BTC to stabilized the price of altcoin, what do you mean ? BTC price can move upward independently.  

[Froshk 1828]

These surely is an indept analysis that one can only find in places like cryptotalk, thanks for the vital exposure. 

@Whited35 could these be considered as a personal perception of yours? Or is it allowed to make reference to these when considering investment as the case maybe? Thank you 

[Whited35 15285]

10 hours ago, Froshk said:

These surely is an indept analysis that one can only find in places like cryptotalk, thanks for the vital exposure. 

@Whited35 could these be considered as a personal perception of yours? Or is it allowed to make reference to these when considering investment as the case maybe? Thank you 

Have you gone through topic top to bottom? If yes, it is not for financial advise for someone else. Technical analysis may not be the same for all traders and I can not guarantee the 100% accurate outcomes(no one can do). Thanks 😉 ! 

[Khan 1414]

This information is only valuable to the main time like at the time of post, market change in every second and the far predictor make the prediction of the Bitcoin that it will reach to the price of the $20,000.

[Whited35 15285]

11 hours ago, Khan said:

This information is only valuable to the main time like at the time of post, market change in every second and the far predictor make the prediction of the Bitcoin that it will reach to the price of the $20,000.

Technical analysis is performed according to already available market's data so it perfectly works for the real time market momentum in the most of the cases. Due to volatile nature of the most of crypto currencies, Technical Analysis may not work for the all future market momentum. 

[Whited35 15285]

On 11/18/2020 at 11:26 PM, Emanuel 12 said:

Thanks alot for the information. What most interest me was the map of crypto currency adoption. From that the highest was in Europe. I thought crypto currency was mostly adopted in Asia but from seeing that then I'll learn alot

@Emanuel 12 Thanks a lot for your feedback too 😉 ! Yes, Ukraine is leading in case cryptocurrency adoption and it has a huge significance in the cryptocurrency markets too. Crypto adoption rater is increasing in rate worldwide. If you locate the Bitcoin's realized price, it has highest ever to break the previous records. 

[Whited35 15285]

4 hours ago, Tulip_al said:

It is necessary for beginners to pay attention to the necessity of technical analysis of the currency before buying it, by predicting the future of price movement by looking at the previous price movement, because unfortunately there are many beginners trading depending on luck or guesswork.

Yes it is analytical market review but I did my best to make the things clear by highlighting some essential terms. Yes, newcomers might get ideas how the chart reading works for their satisfactions. I do my best in another topic too, wait for that. 

[Whited35 15285]

31 minutes ago, luis20F said:

Market analysis requires studying volume indicators of the last 24 hours and of the last 30 days in relation to the quarter, and doing the things that experts say in the study of the system requires observing the general, local economy and its relationship with the global facts in the contexts that influence and the facts

You are right. In the essence, it can be said, market analysis is done by using so many analytical tools and already available data. In this article, I attempted to put essential scenarios of the crypto markets. At the last, I have also placed a BTC/USD market analysis. 

[Smallingcane012 344]

The crypto currency market analysis is very good in a situations where they are many customers as possible purchase a particular goods and services and also keep the generation moving.

[Ab.Waheed 978]

These information are really helpful for newbie. After some work if they want to do trading with bitecoin they will easily done with it bro with out any fear.  You are an excellent member of this forum. You are make great posts. When bitecoin is influencing it also grow other coins then other coins will grow more. You talk about btc/usd its really give a good knowledge after this we do trading with btc. In these days people take interest in technology blockchain and this increasing very rapidly. It use in all over the world. 

[Whited35 15285]

On 12/24/2020 at 8:56 AM, Ab.Waheed said:

When bitecoin is influencing it also grow other coins then other coins will grow more. You talk about btc/usd its really give a good knowledge after this we do trading with btc. In these days people take interest in technology blockchain and this increasing very rapidly. It use in all over the world. 

As I have predicted in this topic, market is exactly exhibiting the same behaviors. If you go through the topic in depth, it is not hard to make conclusion what I have made in my topic. I made that analysis based on so many historical data and the common sentiments of investors. 

Now extreme bullish market was seen for Bitcoin and it was already predicted in this topic. I have also made analysis for DeFi, you might check that too. 

[Barbarellah 2225]

This is a very interesting article and now when Bitcoin has already touched $ 28k we can see where the predictions when you do a good technical and even fundamental analysis are not far from reality. Small, medium, large investors, governments and institutions are now entering, the price of Bitcoin taking a certain break after the bull run and it is time for Altcoins to start positioning. A really favorable 2021 awaits us if the winds continue to blow as they have been doing so far.

[Rabby66 27]

Technical analysis is the key to business success.  The future value of any currency can be easily found.  You have listed many important issues here.  I will do your strategy of my business.  Let new traders come to this post to gain much more knowledge.

[Nonahassan 915]

Analytics are among the best things that I love very much, and I hope that the courses for these courses are available strongly on social media and YouTube because their resources are few and this is not good

[Whited35 15285]

On 12/30/2020 at 3:40 AM, Rabby66 said:

The future value of any currency can be easily found.

As cryptocurrency markets follows the highly volatile markets, you may not easily find the future values of the cryptocurrencies just by performing the technical analysis. Market analysis is done just to guess the most probable future values. Get the point clearly first. 

On 12/30/2020 at 6:59 AM, Nonahassan said:

Analytics are among the best things that I love very much, and I hope that the courses for these courses are available strongly on social media and YouTube because their resources are few and this is not good

There are already the bunch of stuffs related to the cryptocurrency market analysis on so many social media platforms including YouTube but you have to be careful how authentic such information really is. 

[yenniferamos14lsv 45]

@Whited35Really magnificent, friend you have earned my applause, your explanation is wonderful and very timely for me, I have a few days trying to operate with trading, and in reality I do not look at the market analysis, because I do not understand anything, but your topic has me It helped a lot, I can't say that I understood everything, actually I must read it again, I will save this topic to read it again and understand it better, but if you helped me, thank you for being understanding with those of us who understand very little of this, thank you friend.