Year 2020 entry/exit points for OMG/USDT pair

[rekter 8129]

I have noticed that i do my best TA when i don't have any feelings for the on the coin. OMG Network, is one of them and it has been fun to trade because of the high volatility, and i've traded that succesfully in nomined trading competitons.

 

Currently it's 32th in the cmc with $462,5M marketcap. It's a second layer solution in ETH, and by that i mean it's an erc20 token. That could mean it can rise with eth and eth mooning seems unavoidable in the near future because 2.0 is near. 

 

I have 2 plans for different scenarios; plan 1 (a bull market) and plan 2 ( catching the falling knife at bear market). Both are high risk / high reward scenarios.

 

PLAN 1: Bull ->  OMG / usdt pair breaks out from the blue colored channel, and this will be elliot wave theory / third leg scenario. My fomo entry would be after $3,57 and i start selling at $6.4 and depending if it keeps rising i will sell more when it hits on those every 3 brown resistance trend lines. I can't really put a fixed price on those as they get higher as more time passes on the bull run. My total exit would be $14.5 after i believe the correction waves will come. 

 

I know that sounds unlikely but if bullmarket happens, nothing is impossible.

 

PLAN 2: Bear, OMG / usdt pair doesn't brake the out from the channel. At this scenario my entry depends on the timeline of the crash but i have 2 entry points, 50% in around $2,25 @ 0.618 fib line and other %50 at $1.63 @0.5 fib line and basically any entry in the green box in between those in case i mess some orders up.

 

 

Exit plan for this one is to for the retrace. If i get in at that absolute bottom of ~$1,64, i will put some limit sell orders at $2.2 just to not get totally rekt. If also set up 2/3 of my stack as limit sell orders to that blue colored channel top line. Rest i put to limit sell orders at $3.5.

 

Green bold line that i draw i believe to be a new bottom support line. And if its not holding, i am getting out completely and cutting my losses.

 

 

Note: I have absolutely zero knowledge of OMG team plans other then their coinomics, i am not in their telegram or following their twitter and that's the way i like it when i am just trading and not investing. Not getting involved or falling in love with the a coin at any level helps me focus on my short time plan and i tend not get too delusional on my exit plan. It's harder to get out from something you like when you are waiting for some special triggers/events that could pump the price. Most of the time they are all priced in after people have heard the rumors.

 

I just trust the chart and my original plan.  

Edited November 9, 2020 by rekter
9.11 edit: found more typos

[rekter 8129]

Update: broke out from that trend channel but that wasn't as important as the 0.765 fib line. I will most likely remove that channel and focus on the fib lines now, When/if the daily candle closes above the $3.6, i will just market buy.

Edited November 7, 2020 by rekter

[Raqeebzy 6456]

16 hours ago, rekter said:

Note: I have absolutely zero knowledge of OMG team plans other then their coinomics, i am not in their telegram or following their twitter and that's the way i like it when i am just trading and not investing. Not getting involved or falling in love with the a coin at any level helps me focus on my short time plan and i tend not get too delusional on my exit plan. It's harder to get out from something you like when you are waiting for some special triggers/events that could pump the price. Most of the time they are all priced in after people have heard the rumors.

I will say smart but very rare decision by traders. Trading and investment without prior knowledge of cryptocurrency team plan and even the coinomics for me is weird (if that's the appropriate word) and not common at all because I believe those factors affect crypto to some extent but definitely, I agree it will suppress the emotional-driven decisions. Market can then be traded on reactions only.

[rekter 8129]

5 hours ago, Raqeebzy said:

I will say smart but very rare decision by traders. Trading and investment without prior knowledge of cryptocurrency team plan and even the coinomics for me is weird (if that's the appropriate word) and not common at all because I believe those factors affect crypto to some extent but definitely, I agree it will suppress the emotional-driven decisions. Market can then be traded on reactions only.

Tokenomics would be the right word, as it's a token not a coin. I made a mistake.

 

But about this tactic, it helps me keep my head clear. I once met a guy that just traded anything if the chart was right. I had to point out that the coin he was trading was high change of doing an exit scam at the moment. But he didn't care, because he was only in it short time anyway trading those swings. Even a dead coin can have dead cat bounce when it crashes. And some people will make money with that.

[duncun007 3577]

13 hours ago, rekter said:

Tokenomics would be the right word, as it's a token not a coin. I made a mistake.

 

But about this tactic, it helps me keep my head clear. I once met a guy that just traded anything if the chart was right. I had to point out that the coin he was trading was high change of doing an exit scam at the moment. But he didn't care, because he was only in it short time anyway trading those swings. Even a dead coin can have dead cat bounce when it crashes. And some people will make money with that.

guys like these are the ones going broke from trading crypto, because not all coins will survive in this competitive market, and investors wont keep buying a coin just because the chart looks good, there is more to a coin than just a chart

 

[rekter 8129]

2 minutes ago, duncun007 said:

....there is more to a coin than just a chart

 

These guys are often high frequency traders just looking for short time profit on each trade. Coin/token fundamentals don't mean anything in short term.

 

And since they are not investors, they don't care if the coin survives because if the price crashes beyond the the certain point, they have a stop loss in place. As they have exit plan. And if you an opprotunity to short the coin with a high leverage, you can technically keep making money all the time even when the price crashes.

 

They trade by looking pure technical analysis on chart patterns, fundamentals mean more when you are investing or doing low frequency trading. These guys look only for volatility.

 

Sure, you can have doubts if TA indicators work at all but that's a whole another discussion.

[Babubu609 0]

2 hours ago, rekter said:

 

They trade by looking pure technical analysis on chart patterns, fundamentals mean more when you are investing or doing low frequency trading

Very excellent 👌 mate your analysis is exactly correct. I ought to reply to your topic but I am so busy I only rate and decided to comment later 😃. I read all your topic and I find it very useful. Although you don't follow there telegram you really give a good effort towards your explanation. Thank you

[iloveyobit 6599]

Last July, despite the market deterioration, but the OMG coin reached a price of $ 9 very quickly, I think that with the market recovering, we can see it above $ 15 in the near future, nice analysis mate

[MuhammadSh 3067]

Well analysed! your analysing is really good and correct but i am wondering why the trend didn't go up again as it drown in your chart.. of course there are many reasons.. as many experiences , i find that fb lines are more important than other ways to analyse sometimes! so what do you think about fb lines!? especially 0.765 line.. i would be glad if you will share with us a new update in a few days about the same issue!

On 11/7/2020 at 11:12 AM, rekter said:

Update: broke out from that trend channel but that wasn't as important as the 0.765 fib line. I will most likely remove that channel and focus on the fib lines now, When/if the daily candle closes above the $3.6, i will just market buy.

which we should know.. 

[rekter 8129]

On 11/9/2020 at 2:03 AM, eliottalderosn said:

If you had some time try reading the plans of the team behind. maybe you get a small info or key thought that might help you in your analysis.

Again, that's not my goal with this trade. And if you see my exit plan, you see that's wouldn't be relevant information anyway. I am not investing i have merely set up my trades.

 

14 hours ago, MuhammadSh said:

 i am wondering why the trend didn't go up again as it drown in your chart.. of course there are many reasons.. as many experiences , i find that fb lines are more important than other ways to analyse sometimes! so what do you think about fb lines!? especially 0.765 line.. i would be glad if you will share with us a new update in a few days about the same issue!

We still have time. That candle closed way below that 0.765 green fib line. I have an alert in place in case of a breakout. However i haven't decided if i would fomo in on breakout or wait for the 1d candle to close above that line line.

I really thought that we might be near the decision point for a big move and most likely going up again but i guess not yet. I am afraid that this might be a disappointment if it decides to move sideways, but if it does, it could do even bigger leg up in the future, so i keep watching. I am not market buying without it hitting to any clear support or making a breakout, that's for sure.

 

I should watch that chart with 4h-1h candles too if i find something new. I usually avoid under 4h candles because i feel i am more and more trading against bots with those.

 

 

[MuhammadSh 3067]

8 hours ago, rekter said:

Again, that's not my goal with this trade. And if you see my exit plan, you see that's wouldn't be relevant information anyway. I am not investing i have merely set up my trades.

 

We still have time. That candle closed way below that 0.765 green fib line. I have an alert in place in case of a breakout. However i haven't decided if i would fomo in on breakout or wait for the 1d candle to close above that line line.

I really thought that we might be near the decision point for a big move and most likely going up again but i guess not yet. I am afraid that this might be a disappointment if it decides to move sideways, but if it does, it could do even bigger leg up in the future, so i keep watching. I am not market buying without it hitting to any clear support or making a breakout, that's for sure.

 

I should watch that chart with 4h-1h candles too if i find something new. I usually avoid under 4h candles because i feel i am more and more trading against bots with those.

 

 

Depending on under 4 hours frames isn't good as it sounds especially for mid and long term trading! and i think that "omg" would need a few weeks to recover again as many predicts said.. it's really hard to decide as you said because even your analysing is right but there are still many factors we should keep in mind before buying any cryptocurrency! great update from you and i think that  my view is the same of yours and it's really logical in my opinion.. hope that we wouldn't regret it..

[rekter 8129]

21 hours ago, MuhammadSh said:

...and i think that "omg" would need a few weeks to recover again as many predicts said.. 

That would be worst case scenario as i would have to wait and do nothing. But what i am seeing is a possible recovery happening right now. It's trying to brake that fib line i used in daily closed candles. And i feel that could be adam and eve formation happening already. If daily candle closes above that green fi line, that could mean we have recovered imho and i would watch this closely as this thing has a change to moon hard. But it needs more momentum and more volume.

 

 

After it brakes that, i need to look

[rekter 8129]

And it's a blast off while i was in a shop :) I am in board now. like a clockwork in 82 bars. This will be a huge ride imho, could take days. I am looking for possible retrace points to sell some and get in even more.

 

[rekter 8129]

Update: Luckily i didn't get all in on that yet. I should have waited for the daily candle to close to get in at all like my original plan was. But i still might have bought even if it closes under it because crossing that fib line was a bullish momentum anyway imho.

 

It's scary to hold my current position, i admit it. But i would be more concerned if i wouldn't have any feelings right now. It still looks good but not as could as it should in order to be relaxed about it. But i won't be panicking either. We still have time even though i thought this might be it.

 

Worst case scenario right now is to having to cut my losses if it drops enough and prepare for plan 2 (it would have to drop a lot though (under 2.6) and i would get back in at the bottom green area. Right now i hope i won't have to do that.

 

None of the daily candles haven't still closed above that fib line.

[rekter 8129]

Update: sideways movement continues. Bitcoin bullish move delayed the mooning imho because lots of money went into it. Big enough move could seriously hurt alts in short term but usually after bitcoin chart stabilizes, people move to top marketcap altcoins -> and after that to middle and low caps, and those pump pretty easily as they don't need such a huge inflow of money to pump them. 

 

I am still bullish on OMG/USDT pair, even though i rarely even trade usdt pairs. Most of the time it makes more sense to trade against btc pair but when the pattern is clear enough, i'll do it.

[rekter 8129]

Update 21.11: Looks like we are finally off now, and we have only few resistance lines before the moon. 

if bitcoin doesn't do big moves now, changes are we are mooning soon. If you are too scared of btc price action, you can already sell because we are well in profit now. I still won't. Because of great risk / great reward. Selling some at $4.42 to buy a possible dip after that could be a solid tactic.

 

After i have seen this mooning trough, i am going to put all my in eth and btc. Usdt isn't such a good place to be right now. But honestly, even OMG/BTC pair looks like it could have been bottomed out. It almost feel like a huge altseason coming.

[rekter 8129]

Update: 25.11: We are doing well going along with the rest of the bullrun, but while my exit point is $14.5, there is a very strong possibility that it will break trough that to the psychological barrier of $20 because i did my fib lines for the closed candles and also that is pretty close to 1.414 fib line.

 

Note: I just noticed that yobit is selling token with OMG ticker too but that's obviously not the same one because of the price. It should be obvious to anyone who read the main post but i just wanted to let any newbie know that don't panic buy that. You are not going to be able to artitrage trade it.

[rekter 8129]

Update: 26.11, we are still on track, even tough correction at this point was pretty much crushing i am more and more moving for the idea of 20$ top, i can't close my eyes from the psychological effect of round numbers. I think i was too conservative before.

 

 

But we should pay attention to bitcoin movements now, because as we saw today, it controls everything. It can drag us down or up with it. 

 

It's almost end of the month now and bitcoin seems to close second green candle, and because bitcoin has already broke the ath marketcap, it means it's actually stronger then ever. And longer it takes to brake the ath in price, the harder it will go up.

 

My best case scenario would be that btc broke 20k end of this month and we would move slower towards 50k-100k-300k. And btc wouldn't go parabolic just yet. Because if btc would go parabolic right now, it would create altcoin panic sell and probably destroy our omg position.

[rekter 8129]

NOTE! I am cutting my losses and exiting now. 

 

There's a strong change that btc would go under $16k and that would crush some altcoins momentarily. That means changes of my plan 2 scenario happening just rised a lot.

 

This could be a shakeout from btc whales but even shakeouts usually follow some support lines. I also noticed that i am in disbelief mood right from wallstreet cheat sheet and i should exit now.

 

I won't go full usdt because i won't lose too much just holding btc as this is all temporary and there's always a change that it will bounce at any minute.

 

Altcoins are way too dangerous game to play right now. I am waiting for a clear signal to enter back into this.

Edited November 27, 2020 by rekter

[Smallingcane012 344]

No year that has entry or exit point unless if you have a certain point uiu want to reach before a certain year if not I'm not thinking a year has  a entry or exit point.

[Abdulrahman3 1252]

When you said that you have two plans, and the two plans have an opportunity for a big profit and a big loss, I knew that you entered an excellent deal, because the deal that brings large profits must contain great risks. As for easy deals with low risk, they cannot be feasible.