Predictive models: market's natural law or whales manipulative game?

[MrSpasybo 1049]

The Wyckoff Accumulation technical chart pattern has become the latest trending topic when anticipating where the price of Bitcoin (BTC) may go next. Some analysts have said that BTC’s recent dip below $29,000 signaled the “Spring” phase, which will soon be followed by a climb higher.

 

Source: Bitcoin spring? Wyckoff 'groundhog' indicates crypto winter may last another 6 weeks

 

First of all, for the Wyckoff model, I believe it is proving its worth in forecasting Bitcoin price movements during this correction. Each expert has a way to use this model in a specific time frame, I personally believe that Spring has not come yet, it will come in GrayScale unlock GBTC event.

 

The question is: why do predictive models of this kind seem so accurate?
+ Is it true that the crypto market is naturally fluctuating with investor sentiment so Wyckoff's prediction model is randomly correct?
+ Are whales using predictive models to manipulate the market, similar to the ones they use to manipulate indices and price charts to create FOMO & FUD like in the case of AXS?

 

I am a conspiracy theorist, so I think the second hypothesis is more appropriate, since the crypto market is still characterized by high manipulation by whales.

 

What do you think about all this? Do you believe in natural volatility or extreme manipulation?

[kyoukage01 3181]

7 hours ago, MrSpasybo said:

+ Are whales using predictive models to manipulate the market, similar to the ones they use to manipulate indices and price charts to create FOMO & FUD like in the case of AXS?

Social media can also play a part in the market's price manipulation. One prominent case is Elon Musk. Wait 'till he makes another bombshell tweet this week or the next and see how the market (and possibly the Wyckoff model) gets screwed up again 😁 . (Whether it would be a good or bad thing, nobody really knows.) There may even be a possible ulterior motive now that Tesla can be considered a Bitcoin whale.

 

7 hours ago, MrSpasybo said:

What do you think about all this? Do you believe in natural volatility or extreme manipulation?

That would ultimately depend on how many entities are responsible for the manipulation, and how they interact with each other.

 

Less than a dozen big manipulators with the same agenda for that particular season might be able to pull it off, and that is a few years ago. How about today? Big companies are now looking into the possibility of engaging into crypto and they are fully aware of the risks involved. Price manipulators may not have as much freedom as before, because I think they know the market movement are constantly being watched by some bigshots in the corporate financial world. For example, I'm a whale and I'd like to try to dump a huge amount of coins, then buy them back if prices fall. Some company investor was able to read my mind and bought the coins just before they hit rock bottom. Now I won't be able to buy back cheap coins as much as before because somebody else has beaten me to it.

 

To sum up, if there are too many participants doing mind games to each other trying to benefit from an extreme price manipulation, they should be able to cancel each other out because everyone is afraid to make the first move. But on the unlikely scenario where every one of them are united in their motives, significant manipulation can be possible. The first can prove to be very hard with prominent coins like BTC and ETH, while the second can be done with lesser-known coins.

 

[ayatoslaw 858]

The Wyckoff technical chart pattern is just one of many patterns that can be used to track the movement of a chart,
What we as analysts need is to find out which patterns whales are using to manipulate the bitcoin price,
because whales all over the world talk to each other on the chart.
from that fact I prefer your second hypothesis ))

[Ridam 7455]

Every models works until they fail to do so. There was a youtuber whom I have been following for a while and he has shown the model previously and it worked on the daily time frame. The major lagging factor of the Wyckoff method is that the time frame that we should see the model isn't specified. Currently, if we apply the Wyckoff accumulation pattern in the 4 hourly time frame it matches clearly and we are at the spring. But there is no certainty of the breakout because we have to know that big players already knows what people are looking right now and they may do a spike luring people and go on negative direction completely. Let's see how it goes this time. 

 

[khan22 3478]

Whales are the market runner and they dumb the market and also they pump the market in seconds and this is not good but the trader will make good money if they buy the coin and when the whales pump the market the buyer will sell that in a good price.