Next ATH and what comes along with that.

[rekter 8129]

Predictions i am about to make here may sound unbelieveable, 

but as long as i have been in this scene, everything so far in has been unbelieveable.

 

Potential

 

Let's start by discussing potential. How much could bitcoin could grow realistically, or the total total crypto marketcap with it?

First thing i do when i try to estimate valuation for an asset, i try to look if it has any competition and their marketcap, and how far the competition has risen so far. Then i try to figure out if my chosen asset has any changes of challenging the competition. And if it does, it technically could get at least a part of that marketcap if it doesn't even beat the competition.

 

But when we look at the BTC or ETH for example, we have nothing in the past to compare them with. People are often saying that BTC is like digital gold, but it's really not. Gold can't compete with cryptos because usecases of gold are very limited compared to BTC or ETH.

 

We might look for other past innovations to try to figure out what cryptos could be worth, but there are none, except maybe the internet. But we aren't competiting with the internet, infact bitcoin or eth might just become as valuable part of the internet as HTTP. Most people use HTTP every day without knowing what it is. Just like peoplewill use BTC without knowing what the Bitcoin protocol is or how it works.

 

But because i think cryptos or even just bitcoin will be more valuable then gold, let me show you how that would look in the chart and how much we would have to rise.

I will first do my prediction with the btc, with a simple TA and then try to implement that growth rate to total market marketcap because alts will follow bitcoin. 

 

 

 

Implementing that growth rate to total crypto marketcap:

 

25,300,000,000,000 marketcap is not bad..

Following my BTC prediction, we would go over gold marketcap with a bang, in fact, to show how huge that rise is, let me show you regular chart instead of logarithmic, just to get some perspective:

 

 

Looking it like that makes you think that the rise will be impossible

 

But my intuition says that what we have seen now is elliot wave third leg playing out and 300k is more then possible, and if altcoins follow with that rate 

 

If my math is correct, i am getting around 22% mc dominance for BTC, which sounds right

And that that means there will be lot to share with altcoins. Last time ETH had around 14% dominance at the peak,

And even if it has 10% this time, with current circulating supply ($2,530,000,000,000 / 113467501)

that would make 1 ETH worth around $22297. So, good time ahead.

 

But like i was saying, comparing btc or cryptos to gold is pointless. Because the value comes from the usecases. 

How many usecases will cryptos have? Will they be developed enough to be able to secure supply chains, disrupt voting, id, banks? How many other innovations will it disrupt?

 

And if we want it keep such a system secure, how much are we willing to pay for protecting the chain? Wouldn't those coins need to be insanely valuable?

 

When we were crashing last time in 2018, alts crashed hard and i heard people saying "This time it will be different".

I thought it was a sarcastic joke, based on the past. But when i lately looked at things, they have changed, a LOT.

During 2014-15 people were scared that this thing might not work out. And for most coins it didn't.

People involved were more or less sketchy to outsiders, companies were small devs were pseudoymous, 

and the whole scene was unorganized. Bitcoin was more like gras roots geek money that most people didn't understand.

 

Now we have actual institutional investors trying to get bigger and bigger marketshare, some coins are developing tech to disrupt the current stock exchanges. And regulators coming in left and right. Fundamentals are stronger then ever. We need to realize that this is a whole new ball game now

 

 

 

Things that could hold us back

 

With this comes things that many people will hate. FATW travel law will be one of them, kyc will probably be mandatory in most CEX and there will be no such thing as anonymous holding. Because with every fiat ramp there will be id check and you probably will have to prove where you got your cryptos. 

 

Cryptos like monero could be cracked, or just unaccepted. They will regulate all cex:es or regulated cex won't accept deposits from unregulated cex. It will be most likely the end for some people who were in this space for ideological reasons. They also might "split" the chain to clean and shady coins, and shady coins would will keep rotating in dark markets just like fiat money.

 

We are living the best possible time to invest. So have fun while this last.

Edited November 17, 2020 by rekter
bolded some words

[duncun007 3577]

I liked your charts but when i saw that according to your math 1 ethereum will be worth over 22000$ its just too high of a target to hit, I think on bitcoin we are in the euphoria phase and even though we might touch all time high on bitcoin but we will definitely go down hard. 

[rekter 8129]

On 11/20/2020 at 2:16 PM, duncun007 said:

I liked your charts but when i saw that according to your math 1 ethereum will be worth over 22000$ its just too high of a target to hit, I think on bitcoin we are in the euphoria phase and even though we might touch all time high on bitcoin but we will definitely go down hard. 

Yeah, we will crash sooner or later hard, my guess that it will be some point at 2022. 

 

And i know that eth peaking at 22k sounds insane now, but it was based on the share of whole esimated marketcap. Assuming it will keep fighting bitcoin dominance as hard as it has before, and i can't see why it wouldn't go there tbh.

 

Remember that the eth most likely will continue to be the platform for most defi projects. And even if it seems bulky right now, who knows what 2.0 brings.

[Raqeebzy 6456]

On 11/20/2020 at 1:16 PM, duncun007 said:

I liked your charts but when i saw that according to your math 1 ethereum will be worth over 22000$ its just too high of a target to hit, I think on bitcoin we are in the euphoria phase and even though we might touch all time high on bitcoin but we will definitely go down hard. 

$22k price value of ETH seems very crazy at the moment, even for bitcoin in the last few years. In cryptocurrency, all seems impossible until it happens. 

Decentralised finance, ETH 2.0 PoS etc will play a huge factor. $22k is a big journey from the current price, and it would be interesting seeing how that goes with time.

 

Btw excellent analysis @rekter.

[rekter 8129]

 

5 hours ago, Raqeebzy said:

$22k price value of ETH seems very crazy at the moment, even for bitcoin in the last few years. In cryptocurrency, all seems impossible until it happens. 

Decentralised finance, ETH 2.0 PoS etc will play a huge factor. $22k is a big journey from the current price, and it would be interesting seeing how that goes with time.

 

Btw excellent analysis @rekter.

Thanks, And i agree, ETH 2.0 will change al lot of things, and the possibilities it rises seem endless. But we also need to make it idiot-proof to get fully adopted. Things like gas, full addresses and contracts should be easier for regular user.

 

And it takes time for people to understand what concepts need a blockchain and what don't. Because very few of the things needs to stay in immutable ledger forever. And while immutable transactions is a strength, it's actually one of the downfalls of eth as a payment system as well. There's a good reason why visa has the option to dispute a transaction.

 

That's why i think this current blockchain solutions is far from finished.

[Frodler 943]

On 11/17/2020 at 9:58 PM, rekter said:

People are often saying that BTC is like digital gold, but it's really not. Gold can't compete with cryptos because usecases of gold are very limited compared to BTC or ETH.

offcourse there is no comparison between bitcoin and gold, because of the useability and functionality of BTC over GOLD. BUT if you look at it from the other way around you'll understand that GOLD has more traditional value when you compare it  to bitcoin

[rekter 8129]

1 hour ago, Frodler said:

offcourse there is no comparison between bitcoin and gold, because of the useability and functionality of BTC over GOLD. BUT if you look at it from the other way around you'll understand that GOLD has more traditional value when you compare it  to bitcoin

Yeah i realize that, I thought my point was obvious, but i realize that i also should have put it other way around, as: "cryptos can't compete with gold". Because all i was trying to say was that they are not competiting with each other.

[rekter 8129]

Looks like Willy Woo agrees that 300k in 2021 is a possibility. My prediction is slightly (12%) higher but i would certainly sell put most of my sell orders slightly under 300k As it's a strong psychological barrier.

 

 

[Abdulrahman3 1252]

The way the currency will behave cannot be calculated or predicted by mathematics, because you simply do not know the number of traders who will sell the currency at the same time, nor do you know the amount that they can offer in the market, and this will definitely affect the currency.

[Syedbesharat 5423]

BTC is against ETH ,where BTC is very strong and dominant ,Where eth took long time to beat his last time highest price. Their for I cannot see $22K hit by ETH 2.0 update which is gonna complete at 2021.BTC have broken all his previous record and hit $42K where their is still price is standing at $38k. The price roll down is expected but could go again upward because people are now buying and whales have started pulling their money, so it's become people vs whales who is gonna make up with BTC. 

Edited January 10, 2021 by Syedbesharat
Spelling mistake

[rekter 8129]

On 1/10/2021 at 9:21 PM, Syedbesharat said:

BTC is against ETH ,where BTC is very strong and dominant ,Where eth took long time to beat his last time highest price. Their for I cannot see $22K hit by ETH 2.0 update which is gonna complete at 2021.BTC have broken all his previous record and hit $42K where their is still price is standing at $38k. The price roll down is expected but could go again upward because people are now buying and whales have started pulling their money, so it's become people vs whales who is gonna make up with BTC. 

Well i guess we will disagree then. Imho ETH doesn't need 2.0 to go up. It doesn't need to even work properly. It's all going to speculative money anyway that causes the next big top. Imho bitcoin and alts are acting similarly as around in JUN 2017 before the bullrun, with a very much larger scale, and i am hoping that history repeats it self. That would push ETH insanely high.

 

But i guess we'll see. Best part is that we don't even need to bet on it, as we can bet by exiting ETH at the right point ;).

 

On 1/10/2021 at 8:54 PM, Abdulrahman3 said:

The way the currency will behave cannot be calculated or predicted by mathematics, because you simply do not know the number of traders who will sell the currency at the same time, nor do you know the amount that they can offer in the market, and this will definitely affect the currency.

That's one way to look at it. But how do you think professional day traders are make their money if they aren't using technical analysis to predict probablility for the price? Are they just lucky then? And why sites like tradingview are a thing if they don't work at all for the purpose they have created?

Edited January 18, 2021 by rekter

[Cleaner 2549]

Bitcoin is currently at the highest price.  Bitcoin has always been at the forefront and will continue to be so in the future.  The market for altcoins, including Bitcoin, was in a very bad state at the beginning of last year and its market is slowly starting to pump.  At the end of the year, the price of Bitcoin reached 20 K and in the new year, the price of Bitcoin hit 40 K.  eth and ltc but didn't stop, these pumps pumped a lot.  But I guess btc and eth will ATH always be there

[rekter 8129]

On 1/19/2021 at 9:18 AM, Cleaner said:

Bitcoin is currently at the highest price.  Bitcoin has always been at the forefront and will continue to be so in the future.  The market for altcoins, including Bitcoin, was in a very bad state at the beginning of last year and its market is slowly starting to pump.  At the end of the year, the price of Bitcoin reached 20 K and in the new year, the price of Bitcoin hit 40 K.  eth and ltc but didn't stop, these pumps pumped a lot.  But I guess btc and eth will ATH always be there

I am sorry but i don't follow. Where? Do you have some prediction about the next ATH that would happen in this cycle or are you explaining what has happened in the past with the price?

[Cleaner 2549]

5 hours ago, rekter said:

I am sorry but i don't follow. Where? Do you have some prediction about the next ATH that would happen in this cycle or are you explaining what has happened in the past with the price?

You want to know which coin will carry the highest price in the market next.  Then we can say in one word that Bitcoin will always dominate the crypto market.  And then the Ethereum coin will rule the market

On 12/10/2020 at 12:09 PM, rekter said:

Looks like Willy Woo agrees that 300k in 2021 is a possibility. My prediction is slightly (12%) higher but i would certainly sell put most of my sell orders slightly under 300k As it's a strong psychological barrier.

Willy woo  made a prediction that Bitcoin could hit 200K to 300K in 2021.  But I think it can reach that goal.  Because the price of Bitcoin has increased several times in a few days.  However, in my opinion, the price of a bitcoin can be 150K at the end of the year