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Whited35

Crypto Fear and Greed Index (CFGI)

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On 8/17/2021 at 12:16 PM, Whited35 said:

Really interesting to see the current crypto market and I expect to see the extreme bullish market once again.

Well, not on the level of this year's first quarter, but still bullish nonetheless. Investors looking for cheaper coins have lost their chance for the time being 😂 . Question now is how high up the prices will go for us to sell before prices go down again due to another fear market.

 

On 8/17/2021 at 12:16 PM, Whited35 said:

From ETH, I expected more but despite the implementation of EIP-1559, it is not getting exploded to cross so many barriers 😁

Not yet, probably. Various ETH-based platforms, stakeholders, whales, etc. might be still observing the market before making their moves.

 

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On 8/19/2021 at 10:09 AM, kyoukage01 said:

Question now is how high up the prices will go for us to sell before prices go down again due to another fear market.

Hope both Christmus and new year will be colorful due to extreme bullish markets. I am waiting to see Bitcoin the cross $70K this year. ETH is not making the significant raise rather it is looking stable around $3k. Surprised to see gaming coin like AXS is on the way to reach $100 and ADA is exploded once again 😁

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Cryptocurrency Market Monthly Updates - Based on CFGI (Aug 10 - Sept 8, 2021)

 

Cryptocurrencies in general were enjoying bullish trends during the previous days, spurred on partly by the fact that yesterday was a major historical milestone with El Salvador officially becoming the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender alongside the US dollar. But just a few hours ago, that expected bullishness was shattered with Bitcoin plunging to around $47,000 today from $52,000 yesterday, pulling most other cryptocurrency prices with it as expected. The cause (for me) is currently unknown.

 

image.thumb.png.c31262d3d523bdebe62e9bca1302a5c4.png

 

The CFGI index is currently displaying a 47 neutral value - quite a dangerous time for day traders. Either prices will fall further as fear grips the market or this is merely a short-time adjustment and the bullish trend continues; extreme caution is advised today when trading or investing.

 

Spoiler

image.thumb.png.8877d7e6a0c702b19d8b2f0f16a289b7.png

Here is the latest market price for the top 10 cryptocurrencies from CoinMarketCap. Most of them pretty much follows the trend in the CFGI index at the moment.

 

(topic updated with permission from the OP)

 

Edited by kyoukage01
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First of all, I'd like to thank you for updating the topic with interesting news, I proudly say, if you were not there, this thread would have been died now 😁

On 9/8/2021 at 8:25 AM, kyoukage01 said:

spurred on partly by the fact that yesterday was a major historical milestone with El Salvador officially becoming the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender alongside the US dollar.

I am still wondering now why this announcement did not addect the price of Bitcoin significantly ! Recently, Micro Strategy re-purchased a handsome amount of Bitcoin and spike in price of Bitcoin is started to be noticed. 


 

 

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On 9/18/2021 at 5:16 PM, Whited35 said:

I am still wondering now why this announcement did not addect the price of Bitcoin significantly ! Recently, Micro Strategy re-purchased a handsome amount of Bitcoin and spike in price of Bitcoin is started to be noticed. 

Some articles pointed out that there was too much sell-offs a.k.a. dumps that caused Bitcoin (and other crypto) to drop as a result. Here is one such explanation:

Quote

Unfortunately, any potential goodwill or positive impact from El Salvador's crypto-friendly adoption was swamped by leveraged bitcoin selling. A steep price drop may have been a sign of too much leverage on derivatives traders hoping for the price to swell. 

 

A total $1.2 billion liquidation in levered long positions occurred just before noon on Tuesday according to exchange data aggregated by The Block.

 

“When you see such a huge asset drop almost ten percent in an hour, these are the days when I get a little scared,” Gabor Gurbacs, director of digital assets strategy for VanEck, the ETF and mutual fund provider. 

 

source: https://ph.news.yahoo.com/bitcoin-functions-as-doomsday-insurance-as-traders-mull-flash-crash-el-salvador-183237945.html

 

There is yet again another sell-off yesterday.

Quote

Bitcoin lost as much as 10% on Monday morning. It was last down more than 7% at $43,790.25, according to Coin Metrics. The broader crypto market was in the red too, with ether down 8.5% to $3,060.80, as were crypto-adjacent stocks. Coinbase and Microstrategy lost 3.5% and 4%, respectively, while Square slipped by 2%. In crypto mining stocks, Riot Blockchain fell 6% and Marathon Digital fell 5%.

 

“This sell-off is the continuation of a well-established pattern where traders cash in their riskier assets to cover margin calls or sit on the sidelines until markets calm down and they feel more comfortable going back into riskier positions,” Valkyrie Investments CEO Leah Wald told CNBC. “If ever bitcoin had the opportunity to establish itself as a safe haven or as digital gold, with U.S. companies also signaling their earnings calls are going to reveal poor results, now feels like the time.”

 

source: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/20/bitcoin-drops-8percent-to-below-44000-as-risky-assets-tumble-globally-regulatory-concerns-intensify.html

Just when the CFGI ratings were getting stable at neutral values did another fear sentiment arrived today. Currently it is at 27 fear value.

 

On 9/18/2021 at 5:16 PM, Whited35 said:

First of all, I'd like to thank you for updating the topic with interesting news, I proudly say, if you were not there, this thread would have been died now 😁

You're welcome 🙂 .

 

Edited by kyoukage01

 

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Cryptocurrency Market Monthly Updates - Based on CFGI (Sept 8, 2021- Oct 1,2021)

Dear friends,
In September, we have noticed quite interesting things in the crypto markets. My friend @kyoukage01 has already published a report that is valid up to Sep 8 so, I start from that point now. Well, on Sep 8, the CFGI value was appeared to be 47 that means the market was still at the fear stage. Overall, we can see the zig-zag CFGI graph's pattern for the last month. From Sep 8-15, CFGI values can be seen between 30-49 with several ups and downs but not the sharp to change the direction of the crypto markets.

1491461561_Screenshot(1).thumb.png.308be7d80fc29fc14931ec5435b46709.png
Again, you can see the negligible changes in CFGI values from Sep 15-20 as the values were seen between 48-50 but from Sep 20, CFGI value suddenly drop from 50(Neutra sentiment) to 21( Extreme fear) value on Sep 22 (second lowest CFGI value for this month) as a massive amount of BTC was liquidated through the BTC future trading on the major cryptocurrency trading platforms. After that, we were facing a fear fest from Sep 24-Oct 1 as the values were appeared to be 20(The lowest value for this month) to 27 as China banned all types of crypto transactions to leave fear sentiments in the crypto markets. From 1st of Oct, the market is feeling relief as the value jumped to 54(Highest CFGI value) and we are noticing a bullish market now. 

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On 10/2/2021 at 4:17 PM, Whited35 said:

From 1st of Oct, the market is feeling relief as the value jumped to 54(Highest CFGI value) and we are noticing a bullish market now. 

Oh wow, the CFGI index (and the crypto market as a reflection) has been bullish indeed from the start of October. Extreme greed values of 70-ish has been consistent since the 7th of this month, and BTC prices has been steadily climbing until breaking the $60,000 resistance once again a couple of days ago or so. So, what factors have been the cause for this sudden reversal from last month?

 

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On 10/18/2021 at 5:17 PM, kyoukage01 said:

Oh wow, the CFGI index (and the crypto market as a reflection) has been bullish indeed from the start of October. Extreme greed values of 70-ish has been consistent since the 7th of this month, and BTC prices has been steadily climbing until breaking the $60,000 resistance once again a couple of days ago or so. So, what factors have been the cause for this sudden reversal from last month?

 

Amazing ! I have just  figured out some possible reasons, you are free to counter-comment on them 😁!

  • The SEC is allowing ProShares Bitcoin Strategies ETF for the first time.
  • Popular figures like Twitter CEO Jack is supporting BTC.
  • There is not massive sell-off on the US-stock exchange.
  • The  speculatio is working and the act of most of the investor would resemble 'Buy the rumor, sell the fact" during these known days 😂
  • Are frustrated Chinese investors are also buying BTC in dip?[Suspecious]😜😆
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On 10/21/2021 at 4:38 PM, Whited35 said:
  • Are frustrated Chinese investors are also buying BTC in dip?[Suspecious]😜😆

Hmmm... crypto trading in general (and mining specifically) has been recently banned in China AFAIK. Mainlanders might have a very difficult time buying dips, but that might not be the case in places like Hong Kong though. One guaranteed thing is that the Chinese are not going to affect BTC as much as they used to do.

 

CoinTelegraph posted an article this week about the BTC price condition for the coming days.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/btc-price-on-the-way-to-90k-5-things-to-watch-in-bitcoin-this-wekk

The CFGI analysis in the link got an honorable mention as the 5th thing to watch out for.

 

Edited by kyoukage01
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On 10/28/2021 at 9:21 AM, kyoukage01 said:

One guaranteed thing is that the Chinese are not going to affect BTC as much as they used to do.

As I predicted before, you also have doubt on it 😜. So many Chinese miners are shifting away from the mainland of China, I do not think how real is it https://digesttime.com/2021/10/24/china-is-thinking-about-unbanning-bitcoin-and-started-a-new-research/ but I was just unable to control laughing while checking this article in the internet😁😁

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On 10/31/2021 at 11:57 AM, Whited35 said:

I do not think how real is it https://digesttime.com/2021/10/24/china-is-thinking-about-unbanning-bitcoin-and-started-a-new-research/ but I was just unable to control laughing while checking this article in the internet😁😁

Wow, just LOL'ed much after reading the article 😂 ! (Not including my opinion-ed political implications,) seeing that China opted for public opinion survey instead of an outright 180° policy turn would mean that as long as the ban is in force, the mainland population still has no legal way of affecting the crypto market (such as pumps & dumps) as of the moment. (Well, they can do so illegally of course, at their own risk.)

 

This one deserves a special mention:

Quote

"China's plan to crash the Bitcoin value appears to have backfired as the crypto coin is back to its values recorded before the crypto mining ban."
source: https://digesttime.com/2021/10/24/china-is-thinking-about-unbanning-bitcoin-and-started-a-new-research/

Just LOL! The whole article just explicitly shows how a fickle government policy can be a massive pain in the a**.

 

Here's to hoping the crypto miners are smart enough not to return there just so that they put themselves under that government's boot-heel again.

 

... ... ...

 

About the whole article's relevance to this topic, there has been a negligent change at the time it was published, as the CFGI index has been going strong in the 70's range for this whole month of October. There are probably a lot of positive news going on right now, aside from the link on my previous post.

 

Wonder how long the current bullish trend is going to last. I'll be waiting for the analysis this month. 🙂

 

Edited by kyoukage01
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Cryptocurrency Market Monthly Updates - Based on CFGI (Oct 1,2021-Nov 3, 2021)

Dear friends,
There are several crypto events of October to share with you guys. Well, on October 5, the CFGI value was appeared to be 59 that means the market was following the bullish trend line and that was the lowest CFGI value for October. Otherwise, the average CFGI value appears on a scale of 66-84 throughout the month and extreme greed appeared on the 21st of October as we can see CFGI value is a maximum of 84 on that day it means, extreme greed. Following that day, the new ATH of BTC was appeared to be
$66,930.39 on October 20. The bullish trend is still ongoing and Altcoins like ETH, SOL, and DOT are following the extreme greed markets. It's November 3 and just in, ETH has achieved the new ATH $4,638.45. Let's wait for the November update. Good luck everyone but be careful, winter and holiday season are coming 😉

Screenshot.thumb.png.67b0013ad2f92205c583b45df50794e2.png

 

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On 11/3/2021 at 4:10 PM, Whited35 said:

Good luck everyone but be careful, winter and holiday season are coming 😉

Cryptocurrencies' prices going down was observed during December 2018 and 2019. (2020 was an exception, due to the recent Bitcoin halving.) We currently have a strong greed market which I expect to last for the whole November, but if the greed rating for this month is to be followed by another fear market on the next just like 2018 and 19, then December will become a jinx for beginner traders/investors who hates being on a rude wake-up call after buying crypto at the current rates.

 

Chances of the crypto market maintaining a greed rating until the end of the year IMO is slim, but possible. The global economy is still at the recovery phase post-pandemic, which may opt people not to waste too much on dumping out their crypto investments for their Christmas shopping spree 😂 . (Special shout-out to the citizens living on a certain country where crypto mining (and, effectively, trading) was recently banned. Sorry, no Christmas dumps from you guys 🤣 .)

 

Edited by kyoukage01
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10 hours ago, kyoukage01 said:

which may opt people not to waste too much on dumping out their crypto investments for their Christmas shopping spree 😂 .

Majorly, if the bigger whales are into the game, there will not be a huge influence due to the small investors not to cash out to spend for the Christmas. Bigger players can play the game to take profit during the holidays. Anyway, as I observed some positive and hopeful points in your comment, I also expect to see the greed market entire this year 😉.Hope CFGI will keep exhibiting vale above 70  throughout this year😁

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Cryptocurrency Market Monthly Updates - Based on CFGI (Nov 7,2021-Dec 6, 2021)

Dear friends,
We are very close to the new year 2022. Last month November has the mixed bullish and the bearish trend in the cryptocurrency markets. On November 7th, the CFGI value was appeared to be 73, the market was bullish. The highest value of the CFGI index for November was on November 9th i.e.
84 and that greed market state-inspired Bitcoin to reach ATH of $68,789.63 on the next day i.e. November 10th. 
The lowest value of CFGI was exhibited on 6th December by the CFGI index i.e.
16 and Bitcoin price is down more than 30% since its November 10 ATH. There are several factors to affect the price of Bitcoin as there is growing concern regarding the recently found Omicron COVID-19 variant, uncertainty in the inflation, price down of crude oil in the international markets, holiday session, and many more other factors. 
Have a look at the following monthly chart for a better understanding. 

Screenshot.thumb.png.1cb12eee9d5b485c36402d30b176306d.png


 

 

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On 11/14/2021 at 2:20 PM, kyoukage01 said:

We currently have a strong greed market which I expect to last for the whole November,

Welp, didn't even lasted ten days after I posted that 😂 .

 

The yuletide crypto fear market came earlier than I expected. Now the question I have is: how long will this fear trend going to last? The concerns about the holiday season, crude oil prices, etc. is expected to be gone as far out as until next month, but the new virus seems to complicate matters.

 

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On 12/15/2021 at 9:40 AM, kyoukage01 said:

The concerns about the holiday season, crude oil prices, etc. is expected to be gone as far out as until next month, but the new virus seems to complicate matters.

The BTC price is already decreasing while approaching to the new year. Market is tilting towards the fear stage. Some factors are looking like to be the key to start the bullish rally once again( Just my personal opinion, folk ! Don't take it as a financial advise :)) 


 

 

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Just when I thought crypto prices isn't going to be even lower this month, s*** just happened. The last time BTC was kissing the ~$30,000 mark was back at early August last 2021, now BTC has once again dipped at the 30k line.

Spoiler

image.png.6c5e93751e7fe60765003c057982f9a0.png

 

There are at least a couple of reasons worth looking on. I'll post the links below.

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/01/21/bitcoin-dips-below-40000-during-broader-asia-market-sell-off/

https://ph.news.yahoo.com/bitcoin-crashes-to-five-month-low-as-russia-proposes-crypto-ban-110048440.html

 

For once, I have to personally disagree with the current CFGI value. Judging by the linked articles' contents, shouldn't we have single-digit values here instead of the 19 value at the moment? LOL

image.thumb.png.7a8b23ebf10f91a31161275f978911c5.png

 

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Cryptocurrency Market Monthly Updates - Based on CFGI (Jan 11,2022-Feb 9, 2022)

Hi friends,
Sorry for being late to update this thread. Here, I am trying to figure out what was actually happened in the cryptocurrency markets. I've been making analyses based on the CFGI index for a long time. Well, starting of the last month i.e. January was not quite good as the bear force in the crypto market was significantly higher. CFGI value for 11th Jan is appeared to be 21 which is a fear state and the lowest value 11 i.e. extreme fear appeared on 23rd of Jan and a massive sell-off (Billion dollars worth crypto swept away overnight) was seen in the cryptocurrency markets. 
There were several reasons behind the bear markets like Miners were cashing out to pay their bills, the rapid spread of Coronavirus Omicron variant, reputed exchange and DeFi protocols hacks were the key reasons for the bearish markets. It's 9th Feb, quite good news as CFGI is exhibiting 54 value which is a greed state and we can roughly assume, the market is at the recovering phase due to several good news like India legalized crypto by issuing 30% tax, huge amounts of Bitcoin from the popular BitFinex hack has been recovered by DOJ, etc. Now, you can have a look at the following chart. 

Screenshot.thumb.png.28a7a971e511151d17a067d9cc1d5e51.png


 

 

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Cryptocurrency Market Monthly Updates - Based on CFGI (Feb 9 - March 10, 2021)

 

The crypto market continued on to the fear and neutral range for the whole of Febuary. But around March 1, in just one day, there was a sudden jump of 31 points from February 28's 20 fear to 51 neutral. Things were looking quite bullish at the time, but it proved to be just a "hiccup" during the following days.

 

image.thumb.png.27110dc2f813148d9e24a915a7867011.png

 

There are major things that is happening in the world right now, and as much as I would like to go into details, I'll keep political things out of the discussion due to forum policy. What I can tell though is that the current fear market may be due to certain governments trying to put the lid on crypto to stymie efforts of it being used to bypass economic sanctions.

Still, we are having two polarizing usecases of crypto coming into gear at the same time: one is that it is accused of being used to avoid sanctions, the other is it's being used to gather funds for support of a certain aggrieved population. It will be interesting to see how this positive/negative aspect is going to play out for the cryptocurrency industry.

 

As for the current and imminent future state of things for the crypto market, there is still no sight of a bullish market just yet. The US president has just issued an executive order for looking up into crypto (link here) and IMO the reaction for this is mixed. Other than that, there are no further positive news at the moment strong enough to pull crypto out of the dominant fear/neutral market at the moment.

 

Here's also the top 10 crypto coins today from CoinMarketCap:

Spoiler

image.thumb.png.c75c72fbcafed8037c3ddf93d7aead7e.png

 

(Updated with permission from the OP.)

 

Edited by kyoukage01
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Cryptocurrency Market Monthly Updates - Based on CFGI (March 12 - April 10, 2021)

 

This month's opening saw the CFGI rating going at 50 neutral on April 1 and BTC on the way to breaking the $50,000 mark. Some analysts predicted that crypto prices will be going strong for the rest of the month, but things can go either way with neutral ratings. As others might have expected, crypto prices have slumped again with the CFGI ratings falling into the fear territory again and BTC holding on to $42,000 support.

 

image.thumb.png.7040ab71d4802985a3fc6e05f68e6cd4.png

 

The ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe may be partly to blame, but there are other factors as well. The U.S. Treasury Secretary's call for crypto to follow the same rules as other financial systems, and the U.S. Federal Reserve's announcement to raise interest rates, are just some of the factors.

 

With still no bullish trend to expect for the rest of the month, traders and investors may just do the same strategies they've been doing for the past months while keeping a wary eye for any remote sign of upward price swings.

 

Here's the top 10 crypto coins today from CoinMarketCap:

Spoiler

image.thumb.png.6a895723f7ff0fbc4c74232b17f2f91f.png

 

(Updated with permission from the OP.)

 

Edited by kyoukage01
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Cryptocurrency Market Monthly Updates - Based on CFGI (April 11,2022-May 8, 2022)

Dear Friends,

April is gone and we had some interesting scenarios throughout the month. Surprisingly, we experienced a fear fest in the whole month of April as the highest value of CFGI appeared to be 34 on the 10th of April and the lowest value is noted to be 18 today i.e. extreme fear. Comparatively, I think it is safer to say, the majority of crypto investors are loving to hold their assets instead of trading them on the cryptocurrency exchanges. There were no remarkable bullish trendlines as we can see, index values under 34 are trumping over the different timeframes. The highest value of BTC in the specified timeframe was above $48K but due to geopolitical issues and several sensations by western nations causes the crypto market went down immediately. 

Now(At the time of writing this post), BTC value appeared under $35k, and hence CFGI value is 18 for today which means a bearish trend is following up. It is hard to predict when will crypto market gets recovered. Have a look at the following monthly chart. Thanks. 

Screenshot.thumb.png.641fc635b323a40a709d16afbdf70963.png

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Cryptocurrency Market Monthly Updates - Based on CFGI (May 8- June 9, 2022)

Dear Friends,

In May, surprisingly, the CFGI index value did not exceed 17 i.e. Extreme fear. There was no significant progress in the crypto markets to give bullish sentiments to the traders, and so many factors are responsible for it. Everyone knows, that the best performing Terra LUNA(Now LUNA Classic) crash also propelled the crypto market to go down in FOMO. In addition, sanctions are still imposed against some countries which are also the key factors to consider. Now, back in the month of May, CFGI's lowest value appeared to be 8(Extreme fear) and the highest value is 17(Again extreme fear). For more detailed information about CFGI values, have a look at the following chart. 

Screenshot.thumb.png.0807a396699ccd7768120612d2b592a5.png

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How come the CFGI rating falls only to 8 today, when BTC falls to the lowest ever ~$22,000 , the lowest ever since the last bullrun after the halving? I was expecting somewhere around 5 below TBH. What, some even more dreadful news is lurking around the corner to make BTC fall below 20k and drag the crypto market down under even further with it? LOL

 


 

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    • Какую криптовалюту покупать в 2024 году? Начало 2024 года запомнилось активным ростом крипторынка. Во многом подъему способствовал спрос на биткоин — криптовалюте удалось обновить свои рекордные значения и на момент написания статьи достичь отметки в $71 тыс. за штуку. Несмотря на то, что монета все еще может серьезно откатиться в своей цене, биткоин традиционно считается надежной инвестицией. Более того, в конце апреля произойдет халвинг — встроенный в биткоин механизм, который срабатывает примерно раз в четыре года. Его суть заключается в сокращении вознаграждения за добычу новых биткоинов вдвое. В прошлом каждый халвинг сопровождался значительным ростом цен. Если волатильность биткоина вас отпугивает, стоит обратить внимание на проверенный временем Ethereum. Будучи основой крупнейшей криптовалютной экосистемы, токен давно зарекомендовал себя в качестве основной сети для развертывания децентрализованных приложений и смарт-контрактов. Источник: https://rb.ru/list/crypto2024/ ——————————————————— ОБМЕНЯТЬ  / ПОМОЩЬ / БОНУСЫ / ОТЗЫВЫ
    • Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for 22 – 26 April 2024 EUR/USD: A Pause After the Rally     Last week, 60% of analysts adopted a neutral stance in their previous forecast and were proven absolutely correct. EUR/USD had a calm week, even boring at times, moving along the 1.0650 mark within the narrow corridor of 1.0600-1.0690. Market participants were recuperating from the rally of the preceding days, with dollar bulls counting profits and bears licking their wounds. The American currency reached five-month highs against the euro, British pound, Australian, and New Zealand dollars, while USD/JPY once again set a 34-year price record, and the DXY index climbed to 106.42.   The macroeconomic data from the U.S., unmistakably inflationary in nature, started making an impact on March 8 with the employment report. NonFarm Payrolls exceeded expectations at 275K, compared to the previous 229K and the forecast of 198K, propelling the dollar upwards. Another boost came on April 10 with fresh U.S. inflation data showing a year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase of 3.5%, the highest in six months, which quashed any expectations of a rate cut in June, sending the Dollar Index soaring.   Last week's macroeconomic figures only reinforced the image of a robust U.S. economy with a tight labour market. The number of unemployment benefit claims stayed at a relatively low level of 212K, and the manufacturing activity indicator hit its highest mark in two years. Retail sales data released on April 15 almost doubled the forecast at 0.4%, actually coming in at 0.7% month-on-month, following a 0.9% increase in February, with a year-on-year increase of 4.0%. These figures indicate that both manufacturers and consumers have well adapted to the high interest rates. Employment and income levels are sufficiently high, increasing the likelihood of price rises.   In this context, there is no reason for the Fed to start a cycle of monetary easing in June, especially since inflation is still far from the 2.0% target. Market participants are now expecting the first rate cut by 25 basis points in September, with another similar cut by the end of the year. These forecasts were confirmed by John Williams, the head of the New York Federal Reserve, who noted that the latest inflation data were disappointing and that there was no urgent need to cut interest rates. Consequently, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar are rising, while stock indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq are on the decline.   Attempts by EUR/USD bulls to initiate a rebound were halted on April 18 at the 1.0690 level after Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Vice-President of the ECB and head of the Bank of France, confirmed that the European regulator would likely cut rates in June if there were no significant surprises. Even hawkish figures like Robert Holzmann, head of Austria's central bank, agreed with these dovish forecasts.   The pair closed the five-day period at 1.0656. Fundamental indicators still favour the dollar, and although a correction northward for the pair cannot be ruled out, it is unlikely to be substantial or prolonged. For the immediate future, as of the evening of April 19, 80% of experts anticipate further strengthening of the dollar, with the remaining 20% expecting a bounce upwards. Among trend indicators on D1, 90% are red, and 10% are green. All oscillators are red, though 15% of them are in the oversold zone. The nearest support for the pair is found at 1.0600-1.0620, followed by 1.0560, 1.0495-1.0515, and 1.0450, down to 1.0375, 1.0255, 1.0130, and 1.0000. Resistance zones are at 1.0680-1.0695, 1.0725, 1.0795-1.0800, up to 1.0865, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0965-1.0980, and 1.1015, reaching up to 1.1050 and 1.1100-1.1140.   The upcoming workweek can be termed a week of preliminary data. On Tuesday, April 23, preliminary business activity data (PMI) will be released for various sectors of the economy in Germany, the Eurozone, and the USA. On Thursday, April 25, preliminary U.S. GDP figures for Q1 2024 will be released. This will be followed by the usual data on initial unemployment claims and, on April 26, data on personal consumption expenditures in the country.   GBP/USD: CPI Disappoints BoE   Last week's macroeconomic statistics from the United Kingdom were less than favourable. Unemployment unexpectedly rose to 4.2% from a forecast of 4.0%. Claims for unemployment benefits surged from 4.1K to 10.9K, although this was notably below the market's expectation of 17.2K.   The bigger surprise came from the inflation indicators released on Wednesday, April 17. General inflation (CPI) decreased from 3.4% to 3.2% year-on-year, and core inflation dropped from 4.5% to 4.2%, against a market expectation of 4.1%. The monthly CPI remained steady at 0.6%. Unexpectedly high food prices and a sharp increase in housing costs at 3.8% month-on-month contributed to the inflation surprise. Volatile items such as books and video games also saw significant price rises; book prices experienced the largest monthly increase ever recorded at 4.9%, while video games prices increased by 2.3%.   "Overall, this is not what the Bank of England (BoE) would have wanted to see," analysts at TD Securities commented. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey quickly reassured the public, stating, "We are virtually at the same inflation level as in February and I expect the data next month to show a significant drop." He also mentioned that the oil price hike had not been as steep as expected, and the impact of the Middle East conflict was less than feared.   Indeed, the price rise in airline tickets, which are significantly influenced by fuel costs, was just 0.1% month-on-month. Given the early Easter this year, this increase seems quite mild. However, BoE Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene expressed concerns about how energy prices and other supply shocks might affect inflation expectations in the future.   Recall that a week earlier, Megan Greene, in her column in the Financial Times, stated that inflation risks in the United Kingdom remain much higher than in the USA, and that 'markets are mistaken in their predictions regarding rate cuts [for the pound].' 'Markets have come to believe that the Fed will not start lowering rates so soon. In my view,' she wrote at the time, 'rate cuts in the United Kingdom should also not be expected anytime soon.' Following such remarks, just as with the dollar, markets anticipate no more than two rate cuts from the Bank of England this year, each by 25 basis points.   Last week, GBP/USD opened at 1.2448 and closed at 1.2370, failing to breach the key 1.2500 level. Analysts are divided on the pair's future movement: 80% foresee a further decline, while 20% predict a rebound. All D1 trend indicators and oscillators point downwards, though a third are signalling oversold conditions. If the pair falls further, support lies at 1.2330, 1.2185-1.2210, 1.2110, 1.2035-1.2070, 1.1960, and 1.1840. In case of a rise, resistance will be encountered at 1.2425, 1.2515, 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2695-1.2710, 1.2755-1.2775, 1.2800-1.2820, and 1.2885-1.2900.   The upcoming week will see the release of preliminary business activity data (PMI) for the United Kingdom almost simultaneously with Germany and the Eurozone on Tuesday, April 23. No other significant economic data from the United Kingdom is expected this week.   USD/JPY: Higher and Higher...   Last week, USD/JPY once again reached a 34-year high, peaking at 154.78. This level was last seen in 1990. According to economists at the Singapore-based United Overseas Bank (UOB), the pricing dynamics continue to suggest further strengthening of the dollar. "The upside risks remain as long as the dollar stays above 153.75, our strong support level," they wrote. "Should the price break above 155.00, focus will shift to 155.50." Meanwhile, strategists from the Dutch Rabobank believe that reaching 155.00 could significantly increase the risk of currency interventions by the Japanese Ministry of Finance to protect the yen from further weakening. According to the results of a survey published by Reuters, nearly all respondents (91%) believe that Tokyo will intervene at some point to stop further weakening of the currency. Sixteen out of twenty-one economists expect interventions in the USD/JPY at the level of 155.00. The rest predict similar actions at levels of 156.00 (2 respondents), 157.00 (1), and 158.00 (2).   Strengthening the national currency could involve tightening monetary policy by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), whose next meeting is scheduled for Friday, April 26. At its last meeting on March 19, the Japanese regulator made an unprecedented move by raising the rate from -0.1% to +0.1%, the first increase in 17 years. Asahi Noguchi, a BoJ board member, indicated that any future rate increases would likely occur at a much slower pace compared to recent tightenings by other global central banks. He noted that it would take a significant amount of time for a positive rate cycle to become firmly established, making it uncertain whether there will be another rate increase this year.   A Reuters poll showed that no economists expect a rate hike by the BoJ before the end of June. However, 21 out of 61 respondents believe that rates could be raised in the third quarter, and 17 out of 55 anticipate a fourth-quarter hike. Of a smaller sample of 36 economists, 19% think a July hike is possible, but October is the most likely time for an increase, with approximately 36% expecting it. In contrast, 31% believe the BoJ might take action in 2025 or later.   The pair closed the week at 154.63. Rabobank experts currently see the dollar being supported by demand for safe assets amid escalating Middle East tensions. A de-escalation between Israel and Iran could help temper the rise of the American currency. The median forecast surprisingly aligns with predictions for the two previously mentioned pairs: 80% of analysts expect further weakening (downward movement for this pair indicates a strengthening dollar), while 20% anticipate a rebound. All D1 trend indicators and oscillators point upwards, with 50% in the overbought zone. The nearest support level is around 154.30, with further support at 153.90, 153.50, 152.75, 151.55-151.75, 150.80-151.15, 149.70-150.00, 148.40, 147.30-147.60, and 146.50. Identifying resistance levels remains challenging after the pair's recent peaks, with the nearest resistance at 154.75-155.00, followed by 156.25. Additional benchmarks include the June 1990 monthly high around 155.80 and the April 1990 turnaround peak at 160.30.   Besides the aforementioned BoJ meeting, consumer inflation data for the Tokyo area will also be published on Friday, April 26. No other major events regarding the Japanese economy are expected next week.   CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Will China's BTC-ETF Ignite the Market?   This analysis is prepared just hours before the 'hour X': the scheduled halving on Saturday, April 20. We will detail the market's reaction to this significant event next week. Meanwhile, let's focus on the events leading up to it. In the days leading up to the halving, the leading cryptocurrency did not bring joy to investors. Starting on April 8, the price of bitcoin was on a downward trajectory. The weekly decline in BTC was the largest in the past eight months, and in dollar terms, it was the steepest since the FTX exchange collapse in November 2022. Following bitcoin, other major altcoins also plummeted, losing about a third of their value. The local minimum for BTC/USD was recorded on April 17 at around $59,640. At that moment, analyst and co-founder of venture company CMCC Crest, Willy Woo, warned that if the price of bitcoin fell below the short-term holders' support level at $58,900, the market might enter a bear phase. However, this did not occur, and the price returned to around $62,000.   Analysts at CryptoQuant believe that the recent crash was necessary to reset unrealized trader profits to zero—a typical signal of a bottom in bull markets. Willy Woo suggested that "current bearish sentiments are actually a bullish sign," and that the next level where major short liquidations would occur is between $71,000 and $75,000. Renowned trader RektCapital reassured investors, stating that a price drop before the halving is a normal trend. "There is no need to panic, as this drop has occurred in all cycles. Don’t think that it’s different this time," he emphasized.   There were, however, other theories about the recent price drop. According to one, the fall in bitcoin was helped by the escalation of conflict in the Middle East and an attack by Iran on Israel. CEO of Galaxy Digital, Mike Novogratz, speculated that bitcoin could reach a new all-time high if the conflict in that region subsided. In this context, he urged world leaders to take control of the situation to prevent a further decline in prices for all financial assets, including cryptocurrency.   In contrast, Michael Saylor, president of MicroStrategy, believes that geopolitical tension will actually benefit bitcoin, suggesting that "chaos is good for bitcoin." Logically, this makes sense: cryptocurrency was born in response to the economic crisis of 2008, making it an alternative means of capital preservation during upheavals. (Note that MicroStrategy, with 205,000 BTC on its balance sheet, is the largest public holder of bitcoin and naturally interested in its price increase.)   OpenAI's ChatGPT did not overlook the international situation either. This Artificial Intelligence believes that if the crisis between Israel and Iran intensifies, the price of the main cryptocurrency will only slightly decrease, and this will be a short-term reaction. More severe impacts would likely be on assets like stocks. Bitcoin, however, is expected to quickly recover its position. ChatGPT, like Michael Saylor, anticipates that an initial drop will be followed by a bullish rally as investors look for a safe haven, potentially driving "digital gold" to a new historical high of $75,000. If the escalation in the Middle East becomes protracted and leads to a series of smaller conflicts, ChatGPT predicts the volatility range for bitcoin could expand: with an initial fall to $55,000 followed by a surge to $80,000.   It is worth noting that the discussed drop in BTC/USD occurred against the backdrop of a noticeable strengthening of the American currency. This was not only due to the dollar's role as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tension but also because of a postponement in market expectations regarding the timing of the Fed's easing of monetary policy. After the inflation data published on April 10, market participants decided that the first rate cut would not happen in June but in September, causing the Dollar Index (DXY) to surge sharply. Naturally, the strengthening of one asset in a currency pair led to the weakening of the other: the principle of leverage is irrefutable.   Now, a few words about what awaits the main cryptocurrency after the halving. This year, 75% of the investment influx has been provided by the newly launched spot bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. Their combined balance now totals $12.5 billion, with the U.S. accounting for over 95% of the global inflow into exchange-traded crypto funds. The interest in ETFs has been so strong that BlackRock's fund became the fastest-growing in history.   According to CryptoQuant analysts, the reserves of bitcoin on exchanges will last only a few months at the current rates. Total available exchange reserves have decreased by more than 800,000 BTC and have reached their lowest level in the history of two-year observations. As of April 16, they stand at about 2 million BTC. Assuming a daily influx into spot BTC-ETFs of about $500 million, which at current prices equates to approximately 8,025 coins, it would take just nine months to completely deplete these reserves.   The results of calculations using the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which demonstrates the relationship between an asset's usage and its reserves, show that after the halving, the bitcoin S2F coefficient will reach 112 points. This is nearly twice the S2F for gold (60 points), indicating that by January 2025, bitcoin will become a more scarce commodity than the most popular precious metal.   In such a scenario, another powerful new driver could emerge. Following the U.S., similar investment inflows into cryptocurrency could be provided by spot ETFs in China. According to insider information from Bloomberg, the SEC of Hong Kong could make a positive decision on launching such funds within the next few days. And perhaps the predictions by ARK Invest's CEO, Cathy Wood, and author Robert Kiyosaki, who expect the price of bitcoin to reach $2.3 million per coin by 2030, are not so far from the truth.   As of the evening of Friday, April 19, BTC/USD is trading around $64,150. The total market capitalization of the crypto market stands at $2.32 trillion, down from $2.44 trillion a week ago. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped from 79 to 66 points, moving from the Extreme Greed zone to the Greed zone.   Finally, a bit of intriguing information for collectors. As it has been revealed, miners have begun active preparations for the "hunt" for the first "epic" satoshi to be mined after the current halving. Whoever mines it might receive a substantial sum, as the estimated value of this "collectible" digital coin could be several tens of millions of dollars. About two years ago, Casey Rodarmor, creator of the Ordinals protocol on the blockchain of the first cryptocurrency, developed a system for classifying the rarity of individual sats. With the launch of "inscriptions," it became possible to number and sell fractions of bitcoin similar to non-fungible tokens (NFTs).   Rodarmor's scale varies from the first "unusual" satoshi in each block to the "mythical" – the very first in the history of the blockchain. One of the highest degrees of rarity is the "epic" sat, mined in the first block after each halving. It is possible that collectors might value such an asset even at $50 million. (Remember that a satoshi is one hundred millionth of a bitcoin (0.00000001), and at the current BTC price, the price of a regular, non-collectible sat is just $0.00064). NordFX Analytical Group   Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.   #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market   https://nordfx.com/ 
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    • Наступило еще одно сокращение награды биткойнов вдвое, четвертое на данный момент, и оно не было похоже ни на одно другое до него, причем институциональные инвестиции впервые сыграли ключевую роль. Уполовинивание биткойнов исторически было связано с одним существенным сходством — последующим скачком цены BTC , который часто происходит через некоторое время после халвинга. Хотя сообществу еще предстоит выяснить, пойдет ли четвертое халвинг по тому же пути, кое-что уже изменилось в халвинге Биткойна в 2024 году. База пользователей криптовалют выросла как минимум на 400% с момента сокращения вдвое в 2020 году Хотя скорость генерации новых биткойнов снизилась со времени первого халвинга, спрос не остался на месте. По данным различных источников , с момента предыдущего сокращения биткойнов вдвое, которое произошло в мае 2020 года , глобальная база пользователей криптовалюты увеличилась как минимум на 400 миллионов пользователей. По оценкам Кембриджского центра альтернативных финансов (CCAF), в 2020 году число владельцев криптовалют во всем мире составило около 100 миллионов пользователей . По оценкам криптобиржи Crypto.com, к концу 2023 года число пользователей криптовалюты в мире выросло до 580 миллионов человек . Глобальные пользователи криптовалюты с января 2023 г. по декабрь 2023 г. Источник. Крипто.com Несмотря на то, что Биткойн является крупнейшей в мире криптовалютой по рыночной капитализации и самой старой, у него, очевидно, меньше пользователей, чем у всей криптоэкосистемы. По данным Technopedia, по состоянию на 2024 год около 2,7% мирового населения будут владеть биткойнами, что составляет около 219 миллионов  человек. Если верить данным, то, согласно расчетам Crypto.com, эта цифра выросла примерно на 208% по сравнению с 71 миллионом пользователей Биткойна четыре года назад. В случае с Биткойном или большинством других криптовалют оценка большинства пользователей не может быть на 100% точной, поскольку анализ транзакций в блокчейне часто неспособен отличить долгосрочных держателей от потерянных BTC, а также других факторов. Ралли биткойнов перед сокращением вдвое в 2024 году еще не наблюдалось Одно из самых больших различий между четвертым сокращением биткойна и тремя предыдущими  заключается в том, что перед сокращением в 2024 году цена продемонстрировала необычайный рост. В предыдущих циклах цена Биткойна регистрировала снижения перед халвингом, а новые исторические максимумы были достигнуты примерно через год после даты сокращения награды ха блок. Например, биткойн не поднялся выше ранее установленного ATH в 20 000 долларов до халвинга в 2020 году. В этом цикле цена Биткойна превысила ATH только через 10 месяцев после сокращения вдвое. На этот раз картина совсем иная. В текущем цикле Биткойн достиг рекордного максимума прямо перед событием халвинга, установив рекорд в 73 600 долларов 13 марта 2024 года. Такого прорыва никогда раньше не наблюдалось, и с этим согласны многие аналитики, в том числе криптоаналитик eToro Саймон Питерс. На этот раз майнеры «лучше подготовлены» к халвингу Невиданное ранее повышение цен на биткойны перед сокращением вдвое потенциально оказало положительное влияние на майеинговую отрасль, поскольку майнеры получили больший контроль над затратами на добычу биткойна. «По сравнению с предыдущим сокращением вдвое, похоже, что майнеры в целом находятся в лучшей форме с точки зрения более низкого уровня долга и потенциально лучшего контроля над своими расходами, такими как электричество», — сказал директор по исследованиям Fidelity Digital Assets Крис Койпер, добавив: «Что также помогает майнерам в этом цикле, так это повышение цен перед  сокращением вдвое — то, чего также не наблюдалось в предыдущих циклах». С момента третьего сокращения вдвое в мае 2020 года потребление энергии при майнинге биткойнов значительно возросло, увеличившись примерно с 50 тераватт-часов (Twh) до 99 Twh 18 апреля 2024 года. Энергопотребление биткойнов. Источник: Дигикономист В то же время объем потребления энергии в сети Биткойн, основанной на возобновляемых источниках энергии, также увеличился: по данным Bitcoin ESG Forecast, на долю возобновляемых источников энергии приходилось 54,5% потребления майнинга BTC по состоянию на январь 2024 года. По данным CCAF, по состоянию на сентябрь 2020 года этот показатель составлял 39%. Первое сокращение биткойнов вдвое с помощью спотовых BTC ETF в США Одна из самых простых особенностей сокращения биткойнов в два раза в 2024  году заключается в том, что это сокращение вдвое станет первым в истории, когда биржевые фонды BTC (ETF) включены в Соединенные Штаты. После многих лет усилий спотовые биткойн-ETF дебютировали в январе 2024 года, открыв доступ к биткойнам для институциональных инвесторов.   По словам аналитика Bloomberg ETF Эрика Балчунаса, спотовые биткойн-ETF добились «ошеломляющего успеха», что, очевидно, отражает всплеск спроса на биткойн.
    • 20.04.2024 Тарифы Kingex 👑   Покупка криптовалюты / Buying cryptocurrency:   BTC/ETH  +1.7% (Мы доплачиваем) USDT  +1.7% (Мы доплачиваем)   ^^SALE^^ от 50k    + 1.9%    Продажа криптовалюты / Selling cryptocurrency:   BTC/ETH  - по запросу USDT   - по запросу   Оператор: @Kingex Сайт: Kingex.io Курс на протяжении дня может меняться! ------------------------ Будьте ОСТОРОЖНЫ, появились фейки! Наш телеграм: @Kingex
    • точно не зна, насчет 1го, но во втором стандартные долбанутые а ля erc20 комиссии   кстати, с наступившим !   можно халвы купить в 5ерочке отпраздновать   и тончик снова припал
    • Представители Федерального бюро расследований предупреждают общественность о распространении программы-вымогателя Akira. Согласно заявлению ФБР , программа-вымогатель Akira Bitcoin ( BTC ) нанесла многомиллионные убытки различным компаниям и организациям в Северной Америке, Европе и Австралии. Вредоносное ПО получает доступ к инфраструктуре предприятия через VPN, получая доступ к программному обеспечению без многофакторной аутентификации. Затем Акира крадет конфиденциальные данные и важную информацию, блокируя доступ к системе. Далее на экране отображается сообщение с требованием выкупа. Хакеры используют биткойн в качестве способа оплаты.   В результате распространения программы-вымогателя неизвестные мошенники завладели более чем $42 млн, затронув более 250 компаний. Первоначально хакеры атаковали компьютерные системы на базе Windows, но позже следователи выявили и Linux-версию Akira. ФБР совместно с Агентством кибербезопасности и безопасности инфраструктуры (CISA), Европейским центром по киберпреступности Европола (EC3) и Национальным центром кибербезопасности Нидерландов (NCSC-NL) выпустило специальное предупреждение. Ранее ФБР опубликовало отчет о мошенничестве с инвестициями в криптовалюту. По данным агентства, в 2023 году этот показатель увеличился на 53% до $3,94 млрд. Как пояснили в ФБР, большая часть афер была связана с обещанием высоких прибылей от инвестиций в цифровые активы и составляет 86% всех потерь от инвестиционного мошенничества. В Соединенных Штатах.
    • Как и другие L2-решения, конкуренты (солана) и сам эфир. У меня возникла мысль, не перелезть ли с матика в оптимизм, арбитрум или еще что. Как раз пока дно. Но че-то лень. А другие более значительные перед халвингом были? Уж какие случились. Я пересказы видел и не потянуло слушать целиком.
    • Здравствуйте, уважаемые пользователи!   Хотим Вас уведомить, что на сайт добавили следующие направления обмена: Solana SOL > USDT TRC20 USDT TRC20 > Solana SOL
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