Difficulty Adjustment, 10% lower on June 4th

[BTC Future 3946]

The difficulty of the algorithm (SHA-256) that is used for mining Bitcoin was decreased by 9,29% on June 4th, 2020. This was reportedly the 7th biggest drop in difficulty in Bitcoin's history. 

 

The difficulty for mining Bitcoin adjusts every 2016 blocks to keep the block production time on an average of ten minutes. This event is hardcoded into Bitcoin's code and there is no need for intervention by developers. It is called "Difficulty Adjustment" and it occurs roughly every two weeks. It calculates the average time of blocks produced and adjusts the difficulty of the SHA-256 cryptographic problems that miners are solving to validate transactions.

 

 

source: btc.com (link)

According to data from btc.com Bitcoin's difficulty was adjusted lower by close to 10% on block 633.024 allowing the miners to produce new blocks with less hash rate. Bitcoin's hash rate has been inconsistent after the halving in May, and many miners were forced to shut-down their equipment as expected.

 

The halving had an effect on many miners which weren't profitable anymore. The profitability of miners will be higher at least for another two weeks and this is already helping hash rate recover.

 

source: Blockchain.com (link)

Hash rate has been fluctuating a lot and on average it dropped to a new year low a few days ago. Hashrate is what makes the Bitcoin's network secure and while for the first six months of 2020 it doesn't follow the pattern of previous years, still even if it drops 50% in case miners are not profitable, the network will be as strong as it was last year, so it won't be any cause for concern.

 

From various articles I've read it seems that miners have sold a lot of Bitcoins from their stack lately. Basically, they've sold more than they produced after the halving. It is usual for miners to hold their Bitcoins when prices are low, or on a downturn, and sell when they are higher sometimes in co-ordination between them in order not to crash the price. The selling pressure after the halving was mostly from the miners but it was absorbed by the market quite well, without any major dips happening that could change the trend into a bearish one.

 

 

Edited June 6, 2020 by BTC Future

[Raqeebzy 6456]

32 minutes ago, BTC Future said:

The difficulty of the algorithm (SHA-256) that is used for mining Bitcoin was decreased by 9,29% on June 4th, 2020. This was reportedly the 7th biggest drop in difficulty in Bitcoin's histor

This is the third term in history we are experiencing such (Three or more consecutive downward movement of bitcoin mining difficulty), in 2011 and 2018. All the time, bitcoin experiences experience a price dip. I remembered 2018 very well, bitcoin traded around $3000, I am not bullish but with this, we might need to have a price decline for a while.

[BitcryptoHan 2557]

1 hour ago, Raqeebzy said:

This is the third term in history we are experiencing such (Three or more consecutive downward movement of bitcoin mining difficulty), in 2011 and 2018.

I do not know about 2011 and 2018, i know about 2012 when the halving reword decreased, the difficulty decrease too as miners reduce. I am not sure of 2016. Can you give me a link to where you read yours 

[Raqeebzy 6456]

31 minutes ago, BitcryptoHan said:

I do not know about 2011 and 2018, i know about 2012 when the halving reword decreased, the difficulty decrease too as miners reduce. I am not sure of 2016. Can you give me a link to where you read yours 

I haven't been in crypto in 2011, so it was much of a history to me. But I am very sure of 2018 as I was holding a very few bitcoin then and sold them off when it reached about $4000. Since you asked I found you a perfect article and from there you will see I was right. Read these on news.bitcoin and a recent one on Coin telegraph

 

And this is not about block reward halving but difficulty in mining new blocks, it is recalculated and readjusted every 2016 blocks. It is different from halving.

Edited June 6, 2020 by Raqeebzy

[kyoukage01 3181]

The halving sure did had an effect on miners, since the -6.25 BTC deficit is already huge which would have helped cover expenses such as electricity bills and hardware maintenance. And according to the data in the link, before the -9.29% decrease there was also a -6.00% decrease before that. Will this trend continue for a few more weeks, and will this help miners who have just recently retired from mining due to increased costs return to mining again?

 

[BTC Future 3946]

5 hours ago, kyoukage01 said:

Will this trend continue for a few more weeks, and will this help miners who have just recently retired from mining due to increased costs return to mining again?

It seems that hashrate improved with the latest difficulty adjustment. Next difficulty adjustment will be between June 15-17 and it will be increased again by 10-20%.

I follow the link bellow, it gives a prediction according to current data:

https://diff.cryptothis.com/

[magd 5231]

We hope that the difficulties of other algorithms will be reduced as well, because we face several difficulties after half as mining rewards and mining and refrigeration equipment prices have been reduced so we need help by reducing the difficulty of the algorithms to compensate for these losses.

[BTC Future 3946]

11 hours ago, magd said:

We hope that the difficulties of other algorithms will be reduced as well, because we face several difficulties after half as mining rewards and mining and refrigeration equipment prices have been reduced so we need help by reducing the difficulty of the algorithms to compensate for these losses.

Basically the difficulty algorithm is adjusting roughly  every two weeks (2016 blocks). Tomorrow you will read in the news that difficulty adjusted up +16%. This will in turn make a lot of miners that were breaking-even to shut down their hardware once again and hashrate will go down. Perhaps hashrate will go down a lot lower this time. 

I'm afraid that for the next two weeks price won't be too stable and it won't be for good. This is just an observation though, not financial advice.

Edited June 15, 2020 by BTC Future

[Whited35 15285]

After 3rd halving event of Bitcoin,I am still getting surprised to see almost an incredible hashrate recovery phases. Anyway, next  difficulty adjustment will be soon which may again cause downward trend for hashrate but I still do not think it will be a cause to give a price raise for Bitcoin in this month.

[Saj555 2250]

This is happening for the third time actually. When second time this happened i actually witnessed that in 2018. And first it happenedin 2011 i assume. But the recovery hashrate is going good this time. But we hope that the difficulties of these algorithms will be fixed soon and come to a good position. Actually the halving maybe deceased the level for the miners. 

[BTC Future 3946]

7 hours ago, Saj555 said:

This is happening for the third time actually. When second time this happened i actually witnessed that in 2018. And first it happenedin 2011 i assume. But the recovery hashrate is going good this time. But we hope that the difficulties of these algorithms will be fixed soon and come to a good position. Actually the halving maybe deceased the level for the miners. 

Is it only so few times? This is very interesting then.

I'm observing hashrate now that difficulty is up so high since a few hours ago. It went up +_15%. I can't see how with this price miners with old machines will keep them running.

This are important numbers as we can understand how miners will behave and if they begin selling or not during these prices. Sadly for hashrate the graphs on the internet are slow and updating after a day or two. We will see.

[kyoukage01 3181]

On 6/17/2020 at 3:52 AM, BTC Future said:

It went up +_15%.

So the previous minus ~10% difficulty adjustment was only a temporary relief for miners. And come to think of it, after taking a closer look at the chart on the link, there are only a few times where the the difficulty was reduced compared to the increase. Maybe there will be nothing but increases now in the following weeks.

 

Speaking of which, the link also displays a predicted difficulty adjustment estimate. How accurate is this?

Quote

 

[BTC Future 3946]

@kyoukage01 the link I gave in a reply is https://diff.cryptothis.com/ . It provides many details and estimates right now that the next difficulty will be adjusted lower by 3-4%. It is really helpful site. 

It seems that the next adjustment won't be too violent and perhaps hashrate will stabilize in July and perhaps begin a healthy growth again during August.

[Humberto Alvarez 11]

Realtime Console updates.
Few graphical changes.
Fan speed, gpu temperature, gpu core and memory clocks are shown regardless of used miner